Kremlin to Unite Nenets AD with Arkhangelsk Oblast But Only After Carefully Preparing Ground, ‘Nezygar. Telegram Channel Says

Paul Goble

    Staunton, Apr. 17 – The Nezygar telegram channel, one of the best connected in Moscow, says that two of its sources say the Kremlin has already taken the decision to amalgamate the Nenets Autonomous District with Arkhangelsk Oblast but to do so only after it carefully prepares the ground for that.

    According to these sources, Arkhangelsk is “quite positive” about such a move because the amalgamation will give it an advantage over Murmansk Oblast in Arctic development (t.me/s/russicaRU?q=Решено+не+торопиться+и+максимально+тщательно+подготовить+процесс https://indigenous-russia.com/archives/43267).

    But in the Nenets AD, these sources say, “’the overwhelming majority of the residents’ and almost the entire local elites do not want to lose their independent status.” Among the opponents was Yury Bezdudny, who gave up his governorship rather than agree to carry out unification.

    The Kremlin reportedly is considering two possible scenarios: the creation of a matryoshka arrangement like the one in Tyumen, in which the Nenets AD would formally remain a federal subject but in fact become part of Arkhangelsk Oblast or simply to deprive the Nenets AD of any such status.

    The new governor Irina Gekht has been charged with transforming the Nenets AD elites so that one or the other of these possibilities can be pushed through. If she succeeds in the next year or two, she will then leave and receive a position as governor of a more important federal subject, possibly Chelyabinsk, the telegram channel says.

    In 2020, Putin tried to amalgamate these two federal subjects but faced such strong opposition among the Nenets population that he had to back down, although he and others were able to blame the onset of the covid pandemic rather than admit that they had been defeated by an enraged population and the prospect of losing any referendum on amalgamation.

    On what happened in 2020, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/11/some-in-arkhangelsk-by-hook-or-crook.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/07/russian-writer-says-moscow-must-push.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-singing-revolution-breaks-out.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/07/being-nenets-or-nenets-resident-no.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/06/moscows-moves-against-nenets-and-,komi.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/05/pandemic-has-achieved-what-protests.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/05/most-in-working-group-that-called-for.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/05/moscow-now-wants-to-merge-not-just.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/05/nenets-residents-start-organizing.html, severreal.org/a/30624537.html.

    In the years since, Moscow has not given up on the idea of amalgamation but hasn’t pressed the issue, almost certainly because its attention is focused on the war in Ukraine and because opposition in the Nenets AD has if anything become even greater (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/04/moscow-may-restart-regional.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/04/local-resistance-spreads-and.html).

    If the Kremlin does push ahead now or even in a year’s time, the Nenets are likely to protest not only in the streets but in the halls of power in that federal subject. Moscow of course will get its way in the end but only if it is willing to pay a high price not only there but in other non-Russian areas where amalgamation is still a possibility.