New Study of Russian Attitudes on War in Ukraine Suggests Kremlin Hopes to Reach Out Even to Those Not Enthusiastic about Conflict, Bulatov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 15 – Three years into the war in Ukraine and less than two years until the next Duma election, the Kremlin is seeking ways to develop messages that will mobilize support for itself in that vote beyond the current systemic parties which all support the war, Moscow commentator Andrey Bulatov says.

            Clear evidence for that conclusion, he suggests, is the conducting and then publication of a study jointly carried out by Minchenko Consulting which helped organize the New People party and VTsIOM, a polling agency known to be close to the Kremlin (antifashist.com/item/ot-voyuyushhih-do-uehavshih-chetyre-mira-sovremennoj-rossii.html).

            On the basis of a country-wide poll based on a representative sample of 1600 Russians, the two organizers said they had identified four groups of people in the country and the messages that each wants to hear from the Kremlin about the future:

·       Russia of the Capitals, 25 to 29 percent of the population, who aren’t supporters of the war in Ukraine but aren’t active opponents either. Instead, they are focused on their own well-being and want to hear from the country’s leadership what it will do to help them improve their personal lives.

·       Deep Russia, 37-41 percent of the population, older, employed by the state, who “accept the special military operation as something inevitable” over which they have no control. They are loyal and patriotic.

·       Fighting Russia, 17 to 19 percent of the population, also mostly older or volunteers who have taken part in the conflict and actively support. They oppose any criticism of Russian policy there and their values are “victory, security, and a willingness to sacrifice.”

·       Departing Russia, 12 to 15 percent of the population, mostly young, highly educated and fro the major cities. Their “key values” are human rights, freedom, globalism and tolerance.” They don’t protest lest they be arrested and have left or plan to move abroad.

According to Bulatov, the fact that this research was carried out by institutions close to the Kremlin and then published is “an important signal that in the Russian political system has taken shape a demand for work with a variety of opinions even if they do not conform to the harsh official agenda.”

This has happened, he continues, because the Kremlin wants to legitimize itself with a victory in the 2026 elections. And the fact that the survey found that almost half of the population consists of people who oppose or at least don’t support Moscow’s policies in Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin may change course to do so sooner rather than later.