Only Now has It Become Obvious that Russia Can’t Have More Guns without Having Less Butter, Shelin Says

Paul Goble

    Staunton, May 2 – From February 2022 when Putin started his expanded war in Ukraine to the final months of 2024, it appeared that Russia could escape the bind that most countries have experienced when they mobilize resources for war. That can be done only by cutting spending on civilian programs and reducing the standard of living.

    Indeed, Russian commentator Sergey Shelin says, in the first two plus years of the war, it appeared that not only could Russia increase military spending without harming the population but that such spending would in fact raise the incomes of many civilians (moscowtimes.ru/2025/05/02/rossiya-vse-zhe-podchinilas-pravilu-pushki-maslo-a162613).

    But now, he points out, Russian exceptionalism in that regard has come to an end; and the government, as it continues to increase military spending has reduced spending on and the incomes of civilians, even though this is concealed by the use of inflation and denied by government propaganda.

    To date, Russians have been willing to accept this tradeoff or even to deny that it is happening; but Putin shows no sign of being willing to reduce military spending even if his “special military operation” in Ukraine winds down. And so the Kremlin will likely eventually face the same problem other regimes do.

    And at some point, probably in the not too distance future, the Russian people won’t continue to be willing to sacrifice ever more butter which they need to live for military victories whose importance to them may fade as the costs of such things become more obvious, the Russian commentator suggests.