Three Federal Subjects – Krasnoyarsk Kray, Sverdlovsk Oblast and Irkutsk Oblast – Suffer from Four of the Five Problems Arising from Global Warming

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 5 – Scholars at the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Higher School of Economics have evaluated all of the regions and republics of the country in terms of five trends associated with global warming -- heat, drought, fires, increased precipitation and the melting of the permafrost.

            The good news, the To Be Precise portal says, is that no federal subject suffers from all five at once; but three – Krasnoyarsk Kray, Sverdlovsk Oblast and Irkutsk Oblast – suffer from four; and many others suffer from two or three (tochno.st/materials/volny-zary-pozary-i-livni-kak-izmenenie-klimata-skazetsia-na-rossiiskix-regionax).

            The fact that most suffer from only one, two or three is a positive development because the consequences of each trend are increased by the simultaneous presence of others, not only because it complicated the life of the regions involved but also because it means that governments cannot focus on one to the exclusion of a focus on others.

            The Academy of Sciences-HSE study noted that most overall assessments of the impact of climate change range from the moderately optimistic – a warmer north may lead to greater agricultural output there – to the more negative – with rising crop failures, forest fires, flooding, and water shortages for the population and the economy.

            But among the greatest challenges now and going forward, the study suggests, are the consequences of the melting of the permafrost. This phenomenon underlies two thirds of Russian territory where many natural resources and some 2.5 million people live. Its melting destroys much that has been built on it as well as releases gases that will make global warming worse.

            According to the study, Russia will have to spend more than 200 billion US dollars over the next 75 years just to stabilize housing and other infrastructure in the Russian north – and an untold amount more to try to capture gases and bacteria that will be released in massive amounts if the melting continues as projected. 

            Coming up with that money will be difficult in the best of circumstances, but failure to do so will mean that Russia’s unique climate change problems will have an extraordinarily large impact on the rest of the world as well.