Russian Economy Increasingly like the Soviet One at the End of the 1980s, Rybakova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 25 – The Russian economy by the end of this decade will be very much like the Soviet one at the end of the 1980s, Russian journalist Tatyana Rybakova says, a trend raises the question as to “whether the story will end in the same way or whether Russia is headed toward a different kind of finale.”

            Increasingly, Russian leaders from Putin on down have been sounding like Soviet ones in the last decade of the USSR, a pattern reflecting that the Russian economy has ever more problems which recalls those of that earlier period (themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/25/russias-economy-in-the-late-2020s-will-look-a-lot-like-the-late-soviet-economy-a91550).

            Like their Soviet predecessors, Russian leaders now are increasingly disposed to compare what is happening now not with last year but over a much longer period so that they can suggest things are getting better when they are not and pushing off the dates for the completion of plans ever more distantly into the future so they won’t be held accountable sooner.

            Both propagandistic moves now resemble those of the 1980s, Rybakova says. The problem is the same as it was before: while “official statistics invariably proved that citizens were living better and happier lives than ever before” but few believed tat then, and few believe it now.

            As some have forgotten, “Soviet decline was accompanied by triumphant propaganda. The language has changed but not the function. Soon,” the journalist continues, “Russians will be told daily how Ukrainian and European ‘militarism’ obstructs Russia’s desire for peace. The euphemism of ‘forcing peace’ requires no invention; it was tested long ago.”

            But behind this propaganda is the potential collapse of oil prices, something that played a key role in the demise of the USSR. “Oil prices collapsed in 1985. Though the Soviet Union survived until 1991, its economy became effectively nonviable by 1989.” And as oil prices fall, Moscow has ever fewer resources to prop up the rest of the economy.

            To be sure, she continues, “Russia is starting from a stronger position. A market economy offers greater flexibility, and the population has shown remarkable tolerance for harsh measures like sky-high interest rates, rising taxes and growing tariffs. But the Soviet example suggests that public patience can end suddenly and collectively” especially if military spending keeps rising.

            “Whether this story concludes suddenly and almost bloodlessly, as the Soviet collapse did, or drags on in a long and painful decline is impossible to know,” Rybakova says. “History does not repeat itself exactly. But when economic narratives begin to sound this familiar, it is hard not to start counting the years.”