Three Distinct Groups Form Russian Opposition to Putin’s War in Ukraine, ‘Chronicles Project’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 10 – The share of Russians who oppose Putin’s war in Ukraine has stayed remarkably stable since 2022 at about 20 percent; but this segment of the population is not the monolith many think, Vsevolod Bederson, a researcher at the Chronicles Project says. Rather they consist of three groups which together form a complex mosaic.

            Just under half of this 20 percent (45 percent) form the core of consistent peace supporters, he says surveys show. These people oppose the war, give priority to social spending, and would support a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine (ridl.io/ru/ne-blok-a-mozaika-portret-rossijskih-protivnikov-vojny-v-tsifrah/).

            The second of these three groups, which he calls “the anti-war voters,” forms 14 percent of the opposition. They oppose the war, voted in 2024 but not for Putin and favor elected mayors. And the third, “anti-war non-voters” who form 41 percent of the opposition, are against the war, but did not vote in 2024 although favor elected mayors.

            These groups vary not only in their focus but also in terms of their composition and actions. The anti-war voters are disproportionately aged 40 to 49. The anti-war non-voters are mostly young. And the core opposition group in contrast to the other two is almost evenly distributed in terms of age.

            While most in all three say the war has had a negative impact on their lives, there is a significant divergence in the shares who say that “nothing has changed.” “In the narrow core and among non-voters,” Bederson says, “roughly a quarter give this answer while among the politically active anti-war voters, this figure is only six to seven percent.”

            Another importance variance among them is that nearly a third of all opponents of the war say their relatives experienced repression in Soviet times, “but among anti-war voters, the share having family memories of Soviet terror is significantly higher – 44 percent,” the Chronicles analyst reports.

            In terms of other behaviors, the three groups vary as well. The narrow core and non-voters “are considerably more likely to have helped the army and much less likely to have given aid to refugees while “among the active anti-war voters, the reverse is true: these are much less likely to have provide help for the military and much more likely to have helped refugees.