Declining Share of Ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan No Longer Primarily about Out-Migration than Instead Reflects Their Lower Birthrate and Higher Death Rate than Kazakhs

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Feb.20 – Since 1989, the share of the ethnic Russians in the population of Kazakhstan has declined from 38 percent to 14.6 percent, but the reason for that decline has changed. In the past, it largely reflected the out-migration of ethnic Kazakhs but more recently, it is a reflection of lower birthrates and higher death rates among Russians than among Kazakhs.

            Ethnic Russians, who left Kazakhstan by the tens of thousands in the 1990s, are still leaving; but the number of such departures is now so small – 16,000 in 2022 and 10,100 in 2023 – that it does not explain the continuing decline of the share ethnic Russians form in the Kazakhstan population (altyn-orda.kz/v-kazahstane-sokrashhaetsya-russkoe-naselenie/).

            Instead, the Altyn-Orda portal says on the basis of Kazakhstan government figures, “an ever-greater role is being played by demographic inertia,” a term which refers to the fact that ethnic Russians are on average older, have much lower birthrates and much higher death rates than do ethnic Kazakhs.

            These factors are unlikely to change anytime soon and mean that the share of ethnic Russians in the population of Kazakhstan is likely to continue to decline, possibly at an accelerating rate, even if outmigration falls to almost nothing or even is reversed because some ethnic Russians who left earlier may decide to return to Kazakhstan for their retirement.