Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 5 – If anyone is
going to carry out military aggression against Russia, Aleksandr Khramchikhin,
the deputy head of the Moscow Institute for Political and Military Analysis,
says, it will not be the West as many Russians think but rather China; and when
China does so – and that rather than if is the real question, it will win.
In an article on AsiaRussia.ru
yesterday, Khramchikhin argues that a Chinese invasion of Russia is almost
inevitable because “objectively” China cannot survive “in its current borders.
It must become much bigger if it does not want to become much smaller” and it
needs resources Russia and Kazakhstan have but Southeast Asia does not (asiarussia.ru/articles/4864/).
“Of course,” he continues, “a
peaceful form of expansion (economic and demographic) would be preferable, but
a military variant is not excluded.” Beijing’s military preparedness moves
strongly suggest that Chinese leaders are thinking about it. Indeed, “in recent
years, the Chinese army has been carrying out exercises which it is simply
impossible to treat as anything but preparation for aggression against Russia.”
China is no longer dependent on
Russia for arms. Not only has it long demonstrated its ability to steal
American and European technology in that area, Khramchikhin says, but its own domestic
product has so improved that Russia no longer enjoys unquestioned superiority
over China in the military field and in some areas is already far behind.
The only sector within that branch
where China continues to purchase significant amounts of Russian military
technology is the navy which it would use in the event of operations against
Taiwan and the United States. It is “obvious”
that there isn’t going to be a naval war between China and Russia; if and when
it occurs, it will be between two land forces.
And for these forces, China has not
been acquiring “any technology” from Russia “because precisely that would be
used against Russia in the event of a war,” the Moscow analyst points out.
Moreover, he adds, China has now escaped from any dependence on Russia in its
air force as well.
Despite the warm words between
Moscow and Beijing in recent months, it is important to point out, Khramchikhin
says, that recently, military technology cooperation between the two countries
has broken down, partially because of the rapid degradation of the Russian
military industrial complex and partially because China wants to have a free
hand against Russia.
Qualitatively and quantitatively,
the armed forces of Russia and China are “now approximately equal,” but China
is moving ahead in many areas. It already vastly outnumbers Russian forces, its
training programs are better and more intensive, and its weapons systems are
improving relative to those of Russia as well.
Thus, Khramchikhin concludes, “we
have no chances in a conventional war” with China, something Beijing
understands. Russia still has vast
superiority in strategic nuclear forces but even there it is losing ground,
especially in terms of the number of intermediate ballistic missiles which
might be used and perhaps, although the data are unavailable, in tactical
nuclear weapons.
Moscow would be reluctant to use
tactical nuclear weapons because it would be employing them on its own
territory, the Moscow analyst says, and Chinese strategic rockets are
sufficient to be able to “destroy the main cities of European Russia which it
doesn’t need” because in that part of Russia “there are many people and few
resources.”
Consequently, Moscow would be
reluctant to move from conventional to nuclear weapons, and the notion that it
could keep China from doing so is “a myth” that needs to be dispelled. Indeed, Khramchikhin says, an examination of
the military situation between the two countries provides only one lesson for
Russians: “learn Chinese.”
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