Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 7 – In a comment
the Warsaw newspaper “Fakt” describes as extremely disturbing, Romuald
Szeremietiew,
a former Polish deputy defense minister, says that if Vladimir Putin uses
nuclear weapons in Ukraine or in the Baltic region, the West likely would not
react in kind.
His suggestion follows the Kremlin
leader’s incautious and outrageous remarks about the possible use of nuclear
weapons in the current crisis as well as after some analysts have suggested
that Ukrainian resistance in a conventional conflict would cost Russia a large
and possibly unacceptable level of casualties.
Not only does Szeremietiew put in words
the fears many in the region and elsewhere now have that the West is not ready
to respond to even that kind of escalation by Moscow, but his words may make
that possibility more likely by calling into question the implicit threat that
the West would respond to any such Russian action by going nuclear itself.
The former defense official first
offered this judgment on the “Facts about Facts” program of Poland’s TVN24
channel (fakt.pl/polityka/szeremietiew-o-uzyciu-bomby-nuklearnej-przez-putina-,artykuly,500880.html).
Three observations are in order:
First, this is the judgment of one former official and does not necessarily
reflect US or NATO thinking -- although it will be interesting to see whether
and how any official in either Washington or Brussels will react. It is a certainty that Moscow will be paying
close attention to that.
Second, there is a major difference
between Ukraine and those countries which are not members of NATO and those
like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania which are.
The Western alliance is not committed to the defense of the former but
is, under Article 5 of the NATO charter, bound to defend the latter.
And
third – and this may be the most important thing to keep in mind – many Western
defense theorists in fact do argue against responding immediately to a Russian
use of nuclear weapons lest that lead to an uncontrolled spiral of escalation beyond
the immediate theater of conflict into a third world war.
To
a greater degree than anyone interested in peace would like, the likelihood
that an aggressor like Putin might choose to go nuclear rests on the implicit
notion that anyone who uses nuclear weapons would have nuclear weapons used
against him and his country. What makes
Szeremietiew’s remarks so frightening is that they suggest this constraint is
breaking down.
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