Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 5 – Ever more
commentators are suggesting that a new round of Russian military aggression in
Ukraine is likely in order to secure a Russian-controlled land corridor to
Crimea, an action that some analysts say would cost Russia more killed and
wounded than it has suffered in any conflict since World War II.
Drawing on the description of the
Russian and Ukrainian order of battle offered by Viktor Shevchuk in his article
for “Russky yevrey,” Konstantin Zelfanov says that “the forces of the Russian
army are insufficient for a breakthrough and creating a corridor to Crimea and
thus such plans are hardly likely to be realized in the near term.” That has
led to some loose talk about a nuclear action.
Shevchuk’s article is available at rusjev.net/2014/11/05/rossiya-pereshla-k-poslednemu-argumentu-shantazhu-yadernyim-terrorizmom/, and Zelfanov’s even more detailed
order of battle can be found at nr2.com.ua/News/world_and_russia/Kakie-poteri-budut-u-rossiyskoy-armii-esli-Putin-nachnet-probivat-koridor-na-Krym-83918.html.
Even if the losses of the Russian
army and the Ukrainian army are equal, Zelfanov suggests, “the Russian army in
order to establish a corridor would lose about 15,000 killed and wounded before
the losses of the Ukrainian forces would be reduced to 60 percent” of their
current capacity.
And that, he continues, “is without
taking into account the significant portion of the forces of the Russian army”
which would be in places where Ukrainian aviation and anti-aircraft forces
would enjoy superiority, something that would increase Russian losses even more
during such a campaign.
“In this situation, potentially, the
losses would be about 25-30,000 Russian soldiers and mercenaries killed and
wounded in the first week of military operations. BUT” even more significantly,
Zulfanov adds, “during this week the Ukrainian army would already be able to
reform and throw additional reserve forces” against the Russian advance.
That would increase Russian losses
still further. And consequently, “the Russian amry just in the course of the
first two weeks would lose about 35,000 killed.” In sum, Russian forces would
lose hundreds of lives each day the conflict continued.
Thus, Zulfanov concludes, the result
would be that “the Russian operation for breaking through and creating a land
corridor to Crimea and also expanding the territory seized by the militants in
the Donbas would cost more than 40,000 killed and wounded Russian military
personnel, more than 120 military planes, and about 700 pieces of heavy
military equipment.”
And these losses would occur “IN THE
COURSE OF A SINGLE MONTH of military actions” in Ukraine and total “more than
the USSR lost in Afghanistan over ten years of military actions there” and
thus, together with the losses Russia has already taken in Ukraine, they would
be “more than the losses of the USSR in any military conflict” since 1945.
Such
prospects should certainly give some in Moscow pause given that such a campaign
would mean that “tens of thousands of families in Russia would remain without
husbands, fathers, and children, [that] the streets of [Russian] cities would
be filled by legless and armless invalids,” and that many Russians would be
told that their relatives had “died in exercises” or from “heart attacks” to
try to conceal the disaster.
“Any thoughtful person, looking at
these figures,” Zulfanov says, will understand that an attempt to expand
military actions and intensify aggression will lead to the collapse of the
Russian state, its economy and so on.”
Zulfanov’s analysis is likely far
too optimistic with regard to what the Ukrainian military could do if and when
Putin orders his army to resume its invasion. But at the same time, he is
certainly correct that the Kremlin has to be thinking about the losses Russia
would suffer – and even more about how Russians might react if they had to pay
such a price for Putin’s policies.
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