Staunton, November 3 – Vladimir Putin
has a very clear strategy in Ukraine: first, sow panic among Ukrainians and the
West and then wait, then provoke Ukrainians into doing things that distance
them from the West, and then wait; invade when both Ukrainians and the West are
off balance; and then repeat the process.
Such a strategy, one could almost
call it a recipe given its invariability, reflects three unfortunate facts:
First, Putin has a longer time horizon than do either Ukrainians or Western
governments. He doesn’t have to achieve
all his goals all at once, whereas they want a resolution extremely quickly. By
sowing panic, he is promoting his program.
Second, Putin understands that if he
can provoke some Ukrainians into statements or actions that put distance between
Kyiv and the West, he makes progress toward his goal of subordinating Ukraine
and ultimately the rest of the former Soviet space and perhaps more to his
will.
This tactic works either if
Ukrainians call wolf once too often by predicting an invasion that doesn’t
happen, thus leading Western governments to conclude that Ukrainian predictions
are not to be trusted and can be dismissed even when they ultimately prove
true, or if Putin’s offensiveness prompts some Ukrainians to say and do things
that some in the West, to the applause of Putin’s clique, will invoke as more
reasons not to support Ukraine.
And third, Putin knows even if some
in Ukraine and elsewhere do not that sowing panic and provoking Ukrainians are an
alternative to invasion but rather part and parcel of such a plan. Not only do these tactics make an invasion
easier and cheaper for the Kremlin leader if he needs to use military force,
but they could eliminate his need to invade.
That could happen if Ukrainians lose
heart and conclude on their own that they have no choice but to submit without
the use of force or if the West pushes Kyiv to make ever greater concessions to
Moscow in the name of a peace process intended not to reverse Putin’s
aggression but rather to find a settlement that will allow the West and Moscow
to resume business as usual.
Both Ukrainians and the West need to
understand what Putin is about. He is an aggressor, and his aggression must be
reversed rather than accommodated. He has already invaded Ukraine and seized
territory, and both Ukrainians and the West need to recognize those realities
and begin the hard process of reversing Putin’s crimes and punishing him for
them.
That will not be easy for either
Ukrainians who are forced to look down the barrel of Russian guns and at the
pipeline of Russian gas, and it will not be easy for the West which in its
desire to declare victory and do business has consistently refused to recognize
just how horrific the Soviet system was and how much Putin embodies its worst
features.
But it can be done. And three steps
are necessary immediately. First,
Ukraine and the West must understand what Putin is doing and call it by its
rightful names: invasion, Anschluss, provocation, intimidation, and
panic-sowing. And both must understand that this is part of a single policy
rather than a set of alternatives as some in both Kyiv and the West appear to
want to believe.
Second, the West must declare
formally a non-recognition policy relative to Crimea and the southeastern
portions of Ukraine where Moscow forces are currently operating. Western
governments must say clearly that they will never recognize as legitimate the
Russian occupation and annexation and that they will never recognize the
government that does those things as legitimate either.
That won’t reverse Putin’s crimes
immediately, just as the US-led non-recognition policy about the Soviet
occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania took 50 years to achieve its goal; but
it will serve notice to Russia and the world that the results of Putin’s
actions will be reversed eventually.
And third, it is long past time to
be talking about whether NATO countries should be supplying Ukraine with
weapons. They should have been sent at the time of the first Putin moves
against Ukraine, and the flow of such weapons and related assistance should
have been stepped up with each new Putin action.
In short, the time has come for the West
to extend NATO membership to Ukraine, a country that has made the choice to be
part of the West and that the West now acknowledges that reality. That alone will
not solve the current crisis, but it will disrupt Putin’s strategy and cause
both him and his supporters to realize that his approach won’t be tolerated any
longer.
If that message isn't delivered now, Putin will repeat his strategy not only in Ukraine but elsewhere as well.
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