Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 4 – Russian
trains now travel at “almost the same average speed” they did in the middle of
the 19th century, and Russian Rail remains a Soviet-style monopoly
for all the talk about innovations over the last 15 years, according to a new
study, which points to these shortcomings as a major reason for a new effort at
reform.
The average speed on the very first
Russian railroad, which was opened in 1837, was 51 kilometers an hour, a speed
that Russian trains moved until a decade ago, when after several reforms, the
speed for passenger trains was boosted to 57.4 kilometers an hour by 2010 (profile.ru/economics/item/100914-vagonchik-nikak-ne-tronetsya).
The
average speed for cargo trains is even worse: 10.6 kilometers an hour or about
what a bicycle rider goes, and slower than it was “a half century ago in the
USSR.” That makes logistics “insane,” as it is much slower than in other
countries: In Germany and China, cargo trains average 60 kilometers an hour and
in the US, 45 km/hour.
Moreover
and compounding these problems, the density of track per 1000 square kilometers
is much lower in Russia than in other countries, five times less than in the
US, 10 times less than in France, and 13 times less than in Italy. It is even
seven times less than the density of track per that area in Ukraine.
Not
surprisingly, everyone agrees all this must be changed through some kind of
radical reform, Yekaterina Butorina, Aleksey Mikhaylov and Aleksandr Barinov
write in “Profile;” but there are serious disagreements about what that reform
should look like, how it should be paid for, and with what it should begin.
Some
believe that Russian Rail can reform itself especially since it now has a new
head; but others argue that it must be broken up either regionally or functionally.
Vladimir Putin has indicated that he favors “demonopolization,” but he has
called for that before and it has not yet happened.
Since
2001 when the reform of the branch began, a great deal has happened but not the
final stage. Private firms gained
control of much of the rolling stock, prices were liberalized, and government
subsidies were restructured. But competition has not been created and
investment has therefore not followed in the way many hoped. And Russian Rail remains a state monopoly.
Those
who want to see it broken up and competition established point to the rapid
growth of US rails as a result of competition, but those who favor a monopoly
approach point to the degradation less of the rolling stock than of the rails
themselves, the correction of which they say requires state intervention.
At
present, the three writers argue, there are two basic models for Russia to
choose from: the European with divided infrastructure and elements of both
monopoly and market operations, and the American which would hold the rails
themselves in the hands of the state but allow vertically integrated companies
to compete for passengers and freight.
It
is impossible to say which strategy Moscow will choose, the three writers
conclude. And the fact that each side has a case may mean that the central
government will simply delay taking any decision. But “sooner or later,” they
argue, Moscow will not be able to avoid doing so if rails are to contribute to
the economy rather than hold it back.
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