Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 3 – One of the arguments
those opposed to the collapse of the USSR frequently offered and one that those
who believe that these countries must remain in Moscow’s sphere of influence is
that they are inevitably going to be dependent on the Russian Federation for
energy supplies.
But that argument, often heard in
Moscow and still heard in Western countries as well, reflects “stereotypical”
thinking which real events on the ground are showing to be without foundation,
according to economist Andrey Illarionov (charter97.org/ru/news/2016/1/3/185374/
and svoboda.mobi/a/27453607.html).
The Moscow scholar points out that despite
its size, Lithuania decided to pursue “real energy independence from Russia”
and “in the course of the last several years, [Vilnius] has achieved this. That
means that any other country … is capable of achieving energy independence from
Russia.”
Not only will that free these
countries of the kind of Russian leverage to which they are subject to at the
present time, Illarionov says, but it will mean that Russia as “an energy power”
will cease to exist.” Russia will still have oil and gas, but if no one abroad
buys it, these resources will remain at home.
That will affect the Russian economy
across the board even as it changes Russia’s geopolitical situation. And then perhaps Russia will follow
Kazakhstan’s approach, a country in which income from the sale of petroleum
constitutes an even larger portion of the state budget than in Russia but which
is pursuing a policy of diversifying its national economy.
“The more adequate policy being
conducted by among others the authoritarian regime of Kazakhstan is giving
completely different results” both at home and abroad. And it is leading to a
radical change in the balance between Russia and her neighbors both
economically and politically.
Indeed, Inozemtsev says, “any other country
which conducts a more adequate economic policy and has higher rates of growth
may pass Russia in terms of GDP per capita.”
Russians aren’t ready for this but they need to be because that is the
current trend and the Baltic countries are showing the way.
“Having supported European sanctions
against Russia,” the economist continues, “Lithuania imposed national sanctions
as well and declared its readiness to completely do without Russian gas.” Moreover,
Vilnius has ratified the Ukraine-EU accord and “offered the Ukrainian
government help in the construction of a terminal” for gas from elsewhere.
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