Paul Goble
Staunton,
February 13 – By his aggression against Ukraine and his illegal annexation of
Crimea, Vladimir Putin has done more than almost anyone else to build a
Ukrainian nation. Now, the Kremlin leader albeit not yet by as extreme actions
is promoting the consolidation of the Belarusian nation -- and that will make
his dreams of a renewed Soviet Union impossible.
In
both cases, Putin has landed in a security trap of his own making: he might
have been able to achieve his goals if he had pursued more indirect and
accommodating tactics; but by pursuing them so directly and by threats, the
Kremlin leader has produced exactly the reverse of what he clearly hoped for.
That
is the upshot of a 5800-word article by Ilya Azar of Moscow’s Novaya gazeta who interviewed 11
Belarusians across the political spectrum about their reactions to Putin’s
pressure and concluded that the national idea in Belarus today is “to become
Belarusians,” hardly what Putin wants (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/02/11/79507-natsionalnaya-ideya-stat-belorusami).
The comments of
three of Azar’s interlocutors are especially suggestive:
Grigory Kostusyev,
the leader of the Belarusian Popular Front, argues that Russians do not understand
Belarusians or what they would face if they tried to annex it. “Russian media and politicians say that if a
Belarusian speaks Belarusian, he is already a Belarusian nationalist. But I ask:
‘if a Russian speaks Russia, is he a nationalist?’”
He points out that he knows “both
languages well” and would make “fewer makes in a test” of his knowledge of
Russian than Zhirinovsky does. “All Belarusians know Russian better than
Russians do! But this doesn’t mean that by developing Russian, we must destroy
Belarusian.”
If Russia tries to occupy Belarus, Kostusyev
says, it will find “not a Crimean scenario but an Afghan one: Belarusians from
childhood have imbibed partisan cleverness, and many will be ready to go into
the forests.” That is something Moscow needs to know and a far higher cost than
it would rationally be prepared to pay.
Artem Shraybman, a Belarusian
commentator, adds that he doesn’t think Russia will invade and try to occupy
Belarus. “Only20 percent” of the population wants to be part of Russia. But
perhaps more important in the short term is this: Lukashenka “loves power a
great deal more than he loves money.” Consequently, the Kremlin won’t be able
to buy him off as it has others.
But an even more compelling reason
to think that Moscow won’t move is that it doesn’t need to. It will benefit if
it gets concessions from Minsk; and it will benefit by lowering its costs if
Belarus doesn’t make them and Moscow in response stops provided subsidized
goods and energy.
Thus, the current situation is “a
win win” for Russia; seeking to annex the country wouldn’t be.
And Pavel Belous, a Minsk
businessman who is he organizer of this year’s Day of Freedom celebration, suggests
that Russians don’t understand the consequences of their actions. Russians think that Belarusians want to be
part of Russia so they can benefit in all the ways Russians supposedly do.
“But Belarusians are smart and see
what is happening with other regions which Russia is trying to control: Crimea,
Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not begin to live better” when they fell into
Moscow’s orbit. Belarusians know this
and don’t want to experience the same things on their own skin.
Belous is not a big fan of Lukashenka’s, but he points
out that thanks to Russian pressure, the Belarusian leader has been taking
steps not only to consolidate the Belarusian nation but even in a certain
respect to democratize it by releasing prisoners and allowing opposition
figures to win election to parliament.
In the past, the world and many
Belarusians viewed Belarus as the homeland of “the last dictator of Europe,” he says. But now they can see there is
another dictator who is even more of a threat to them and to the world than
Lukashenka could ever be. He will not sell them out because he recognizes that
to do so would forever mark him as a failure.
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