Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 26 – Many Russian commentators
have suggested that the findings of the Mueller investigation may be good news
for Donald Trump but will do little to affect US-Russian relations. But
Vladimir Frolov, who is well-connected with the regime, says that Mueller’s
findings open the way for Vladimir Putin to visit the US before the end of
2019.
Because the investigation ended the
threat of Trump’s impeachment, a visit by the Kremlin leader to Washington “before
the end of this year is completely possible,” he says (republic.ru/posts/93376?utm_source=republic.ru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=morning).
Other
investigations into Trump’s activities may go forward in the House of
Representatives but “politically they will have ever less effect,” Frolov argues. “Trump will continue to accuse of the
Democrats of “’a witch hunt’ and ‘harassment of the president’” and those
arguments will in fact work to his benefit.
If
such a visit occurs or in order to make it more likely, Moscow could perhaps make
“a gift” to the new Ukrainian president by releasing the Ukrainian sailors, the
Moscow commentator says.
But
his further comments are even more interesting and important: Frolov says that “of
course, there couldn’t have been collusion between the Russian intelligence
service and Trump and his closest entourage.
Those working in the Russian agencies aren’t fools and understand the
risk of that kind of influence operation.”
“Cyber
spying and active measures involving the publication of compromising
information are one thing; an operational deal with the immediate entourage of
a candidate for US president are quite another. Of course, any intelligence
service will seek and establish ties with the command of a future president …
but influencing the results of elections is not their business.”
According
to Frolov, “Russian cyber-interference was done deliberately and in direct
pursuit of the goal of harming Clinton. To a certain extent, it recalled the
KGB operations intended to ‘harm Ronald Reagan’ and not allow his election as
US president. Simply in 016, the social networks gave new possibilities for this.”
“Was
the game worth the candle?” Frolov asks rhetorically. “In the short term, no:
Russian-American relations only got worse. Trump was tied hand and foot,
sanctions against Russia intensified and haven’t been weakened it.” And Russian
interference in the US elections has been shown, even if there was no “collusion
with Trump.”
“But
in the longer-term perspective,” he suggests, “everything worked out” as Moscow
hoped. “Trump, not without our help, became president; and Clinton didn’t. And
today, after bein cleared by the investigation, Donald Trump, as Vladimir Putin
does not tire of reminding him, can finally fulfill his most important campaign
promise – improve ties with Russia.”
A
summit meeting in Washington would be a great place for that to start.
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