Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 14 – The Russian
presidency is not the only succession problem that country’s political system
faces. There is also a succession issue in each of the systemic opposition
parties, all of whom have aging leaderships that may soon have to be replaced
with young men or women.
The most obvious and potentially
important of these is the leadership of the Communist Party of the Russian
Federation and the replacement of its longtime leader Gennady Zyuganov before,
during or after the upcoming elections, a move that would seem to be a minimum
requirement for making the KPRF a true leftist opposition.
Most Russian analysts agree, the RealTribune
portal says, that “under conditions of
the socio-economic crisis, the demand for a leftist alternative will only grow”
but that the KPRF is not in a position to respond to this and go against its
curators in the Presidential Administration” as long as Zyuganov is in place (realtribune.ru/news/authority/4257).
With a younger and more vigorous
leadership, experts say, the KPRF could gain a third or more of the votes in
the Duma elections in 2021, something the Kremlin doesn’t want and that the
current constellation around Zyuganov makes unlikely. Among the names mentioned as possible
successors, none appears to have the public standing to make the change.
Many poorer Russians fearful of the
future are prepared to vote for the KPRF for its name alone, experts say. If it
had a more dynamic leader who announced a broader agenda of social changes to
protect people at the bottom of the economic pyramid, analyst Andrey Perla
says, it could stage a breakthrough and become a real challenge to the Kremlin’s
pocket party.
Political scientist Dmitry Fetisov
agrees. Without change, the KPRF will sees its electoral prospects improve, “but
the KPRF is incapable of developing and satisfying the demands of citizens” and
Zyuganov’s successor has already been decided upon – “Yuri Afonin, and only he.”
And that won’t change the bureaucratic nature of the party.
Others say that the KPRF has “a
large bench” from which to draw a new leader but because of deference to
Zyuganov, none of them yet stands out.
Ilya Grashchenkov, head of the
Center for the Development of Regional Policy, says that the left in Russia is
gaining grounds because Russians remain paternalistic and want a government
that takes care of them. And he says the KPRF is likely to do far better than
anyone now thinks in many regions where local leaders rather than Zyuganov are
more important.
Among the places where they could
make a breakthrough, Grashchenkov says, are Irkutsk Oblast, Arkhangelsk Oblast,
the Komi Republic, Kostroma Oblast, Penza Oblast, Tambov Oblast “and in many
others as well.”
Another political analyst, Maksim
Zharov, says that while Zyuganov and the center of the KPRF remain closely
aligned with and even obedient to the Kremlin, regional party groups are far
more radical and increasingly prepared to oppose not only Vladimir Putin but
Gennady Zyuganov as well.
If that divide is not overcome, the
party could split, with the regions forming a new radical left-wing party with
the KPRF left to shrivel as a mere appendage of the Presidential
Administration. And the new more radical leftist party based in the regions
could present a serious challenge to the party of power and its patron.
He adds that “the demand for a
left-wing agenda in Russia will intensify in connection with the deep
socio-economic crisis in which the country is enmeshed … But the KPRF
unfortunately is now at the tail” of the shift to the left across the political
spectrum systemic and non-systemic rather than at its head as it should be.
“The longer the communists will drag
out the renewal of the leadership of their party,” Zharov says, “the fewer
changes they will have to stand at the head of the new left in Russia.”
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