Paul Goble
Staunton, April 13 – Many in Ukraine have been inspired by Azerbaijan’s victory in Qarabagh to think that their army can achieve something similar against Russian forces in the Russian-occupied Donbass (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/04/ukrainians-inspired-by-azerbaijans.html).
But Sergey Valchenko, editor of the section of Moskovsky komsomolets which covers the siloviki, says that even before a single shot has been fired, the Russian forces have arranged themselves in such a way that the Ukrainians have no choice of repeating the Qarabagh outcome (mk.ru/politics/2021/04/13/rossiyskaya-armiya-odnimi-manevrami-predotvratila-karabakhskiy-scenariy-na-donbasse.html).
The Russian forces, he points out, have long-range missiles and drones that the Armenian defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh did not have; and consequently, Russian commanders are in a position to destroy Ukrainian units, command and control centers, and even population centers far from the battle lines.
Valchenko details what these weapon systems are like, but what is most important about this is that it is yet another indication that the war in Qarabagh, as the most recent major military conflict on the former Soviet space, continues to shape how all potential conflicts are discussed, the expectations people on various sides have, and the responses they plan for.
(For examples of both non-Russian and Russian conclusions about what that war means for them, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/02/more-fallout-from-qarabagh-chisinau.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/01/qarabagh-war-outcome-opens-way-for.html.)
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