More than Half of Interior Ministry and Russian Guard but Only 10-15 Percent of FSB in Kalmykia would Support Post-Russian Government, Dovdanov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, August 24 – One of the key factors that will determine the success of efforts by regional and republic populations to secede from Russia and survive as independent states is what share of the existing siloviki in their locales would support them. Obviously, there are no polls on this and any that might be taken would be far from reliable in advance of radical change.

            But Vladimir Dovdanov, the vice president of the Oyrat-Kalmyk Congress which has declared its plans to pursue independence but who has been living in Lithuanian exile since March 2022, provides some intriguing estimates that if true suggest where the battle lines may be drawn.

            He says he is “certain that in the system of the ministry of internal affairs and possibly the Russian Guard [in his republic] 50 to 60 percent of the officers would come over to the side” of those in charge of a Kalmykia that had declared its independence, but that “only 10 to 15 percent” of FSB officers would do so (kavkazr.com/a/32562662.html).

            Dovdanov says that he knows that many prosecutors and interior ministry officials are already dragging their feet when they are pressed to charge Kalmyk activists, an indication that many of them are sympathetic to the cause but are afraid that they would suffer adversely if they declared their nationalist position.

            It is impossible to know whether his estimates are anything close to correct either in Kalmykia or in other republics, but they are plausible because the interior ministry and national guard are recruited almost exclusively from the local population while the FSB shifts its offers from one place to another to avoid the development of local ties.

            In the course of his interview, Dovdanov appeals to the West to provide more support to non-Russian activists who have been forced to emigrate. “In contrast to ‘the good Russians’ and systemic opposition structures of present-day Russa, the national movements receive practically no support from the side of Western institutions. And this is a serious problem.”