Paul Goble
Staunton, Sept. 9 – Russia has exhausted the reserves of electric power generation left over from Soviet times, Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov says, and today it has little chance of replacing it given both Western sanctions that keep Moscow from acquiring needed spare parts and the absence of domestic spending in the sector.
And despite Vladimir Putin’s assurances that Russia will overcome all problems in this area, the energy minister said the situation in the Russian Far East is now so bad that energy production there is at high risk of collapse (tass.ru/interviews/21798711 and moscowtimes.ru/2024/09/09/glava-minenergo-zayavil-ob-ischerpanii-ostavshihsya-ot-sssr-rezervov-energetiki-a141663).
Tsivilyov’s pessimism in contrast to Putin’s upbeat optimism rests on the conclusions of Russian experts. According to them, even the Russian capital won’t be able to generate enough electricity in the future with shortfalls seriously restricting economic growth (so-ups.ru/future-planning/public-discussion-genshema/2042/).
According to one expert, Oleg Shevtsov, head of Trans-Energy, half or more of Russia’s aging power plants and power distribution arrangements can’t be repaired let alone increased in capacity because of sanctions and the absence of domestic funding and supply (newizv.ru/news/2024-07-20/elektroseti-v-rossii-iznosheny-na-50-70-gde-zhdat-novyh-otklyucheniy-elektrichestva-432026).
Unless something changes and quickly, Russia likely faces brownouts or worse, developments that will limit its ability to maintain existing levels of economic production even in key areas like the military-industrial sector. Putin clearly hopes for better; but as so often in Russia, the result is likely to be otherwise.
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