Caspian Sea Dying with Catastrophic Economic, Demographic and Geopolitical Consequences

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 10 – One of the lessons the death of the Aral Sea in Central Asia has had is that the impact of the disappearance of such an important regional body of water is far broader than even many members of the expert community originally believed. The looming death of the Caspian, a much larger body of water than the Aral, is prompting analysts to consider that.

            Most discussions on the declining water levels of the Caspian Sea and the silting up of ports and the sea bed have focused on one or another of these consequences, but Stavropol’s Center for the Support of Social and Civic Initiatives has released a study examining the impact of this development more generally (akcent.site/eksklyuziv/42729).

            Because of climate change and a reduction in the flow of rivers that have typically fed it, the Caspian Sea is currently declining as much as 30 centimeters – a foot – every year, an amount that is likely to grow as waters near the coast line of the Caspian become shallower and thus subject to even more rapid evaporation.

            This decline in the water level has already destroyed much of the animal and plant life in the sea reducing the amount of food for people living around the Caspian, limited the use of ports and the amount of trade across the sea, and affected the security balance there with Russia losing as it has relied on larger ships and Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan gaining with their smaller vessels.

            Only a comprehensive program that addresses all of these issues has any chance of working as the sea dries up. Otherwise, there is a very real danger that those who don’t win when one part of the problem is addressed will take actions in other areas that will make the situation for the winners in the short term only temporary.

            But coming up with such a comprehensive approach will be extremely difficult given the large number of countries both directly and indirectly involved, and consequently, the dying of the Caspian over the next few decades almost certainly will trigger new conflicts among these countries and possibly become a casus belli.