Paul Goble
Staunton, Oct. 2 – It has become a commonplace that Putin can win a war of exhaustion in Ukraine because the Russian Federation is so much larger and has so many more resources than does Ukraine, Kirill Rogov says. But while some Russian leaders might be able to do that, Putin can’t because he can’t mobilize Russia effectively.
That was shown in the very first weeks following his expanded invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and it remains so to this day, the Russian analyst who edits the Re-Russia portal says – and it will remain so as long as the West continues to arm the heroic Ukraine people and state (re-russia.net/analytics/0340/).
Because Putin is incapable of mobilizing Russia’s resources, the best he can hope for is that Russia can achieve a stalemate and that over time the West will turn away from Ukraine. But even then, Putin won’t win because of Russia’s overwhelming advantages in resources but because of the failure of the West to stand up to him.
Having superior resources is not the automatic key to victory that many Western and some Russian analysts assume, Rogov points out. Unless there is a leader and regime in power capable of mobilizing them, this advantage almost certainly will prove illusory as is now happening in Ukraine.
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