Regions and Republics Pursuing Freedom and Independence Must Both Expect and Work to Block Inevitable Acts of Revanchism by Moscow Empire, Magaletsky Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 10 – Many of those who want to see their regions or republics gain freedom and independence act as if once they make such declarations everything will be smooth sailing, Oleg Magaletsky says; but they must be ready for acts of resistance and revanchism by the Moscow empire and work to block them both in the short term and long.

            Only if they do that, the Ukrainian politician who founded the Forum of the Free States of Post-Russia in 2022, can they achieve what they want over the long haul and not see any initial victories as somehow being final (mostmedia.org/ru/posts/vse-gosudarstva-byli-kogda-to-samoprovozglashennymi).

            That is just one of the important observations that Mageletsky makes in the course of a lengthy interview with Vadim Shtepa, the editor of the Tallinn-based regional portal, Region.Expert. Among these perhaps the most important to note are the following:

 

·       Certain national movements today are “too focused on ethnicity,” something which “limits their influence” and allows Moscow to mobilize Russians both locally and across the current Russian Federation against them.

 

·       “The national movements can be called ‘the salt’ of the process of decolonization; but when they begin to accuse ethnic Russians as being responsible for all their misfortunes, they go too far.”

 

·       The real division in Russia today is not between “one ethnos and another. It is between people who are open and who want changes for the better and those who want to maintain this empire and bury both their own people as well as others.”

 

·       “I don’t see any chance in the system [as it now exists under Putin] for elections to take place before the declaration of independence.” Elections must be a goal but Moscow will gut them if they occur before regions and republics escape from its grip.

 

·       The battle for freedom and independence is going to be fought not by the emigration but by those who are on the ground. The emigration can play a major role in gaining support for those doing the fighting, but it can’t make affect outcomes as much as its members often assume.

 

·       Among the issues the emigration can’t decide unilaterally is which groups will declare independence and succeed in defending it. Many regions that the emigration now largely ignores may be successful, while many it bets on may not act or fail.

 

·       All this means -- and I am honored the Magaletsky gives me credit for the idea -- that “the scenarios of the next disintegration of the empire will be closer to those of 1918 than to those of 1991.” (See windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/04/approaching-end-of-todays-russia-more.html.)