Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 31 – Dissatisfaction with Putin is growing among key Russian elites, Igor Eiman says, both because of Putin’s unwillingness to accept anything less than the total defeat of Ukraine and his de facto ally US President Donald Trump’s inability to deliver that by political means given Ukrainian intransigence.
As a result and because of problems at home and falling petroleum prices abroad, the Russian sociologist who now lives in Berlin says, what was unthinkable only months ago – a coup that would remove Putin -- now must be considered (t.me/igoreidman/2709 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/vozmozhen-li-perevorot-v-rossii-v-2026-godu).
According to Eidman, “the main result of 2025 is that the Putin-Trump band has not been able to put Ukraine on its knees.” Many members of Russian elites had hoped for a compromise to end the war and end sanctions, but Putin is not among them and now plans to take militarily what Trump was not able to deliver to him.
In this situation, the analyst says, dissatisfaction with Putin “within his own circle will only increase;” and that means that one “cannot rule out that there are hypothetical chances of a coup in Russia as early as next year,” as improbable an outcome as that has always been in the past and seems to many even now.
Eidman argues that “the Russian ruling elite already has a preferred candidate to succeed Putin. That is Dmitry Kozak,” who has connections with both the St. Petersburg and Moscow portions of the top leadership of the country” and whose bona fides as “an opponent of the war and a reformer have been actively created and promoted in the media.”
“This cannot be a coincidence,” Eidman says. “Apparently, Kozak is already being prepared to negotiate with the West on lifting sanctions and restoring relations as the representative of a ‘new anti-war reforming Russia.” The chances of his succeeding remain low, but “the only alternative may be a major European war” sometime in the future.
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