Paul Goble
Staunton, April 20 – Many observers are surprised that the Kremlin has not blocked the release of polling data showing small declines in Russian support for Vladimir Putin, Ivan Preobrazensky says; but they shouldn’t be as such data serves the Kremlin leader’s domestic and foreign policy interests.
On the one hand, the Russian analyst who writes for Deutsche Welle says, releasing such data has suggests that Putin cares about what people think; and on the other, it leads many in the West to think that he is weaker than is in fact the case (thebarentsobserver.com/news/putins-rating-is-falling-but-the-picture-isnbspnot-all-straightforward/448957).
Putin will take some action to show that he is paying attention and that will help him to recover any support he may have lost; and he will be only too pleased if some in the West conclude he is weakened but not without power, thus causing leaders there to behave more cautiously toward him, a development he can exploit.
The Kremlin leader has often used such a strategy in the past, Preobrazhensky says; and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he is using it in this case because it has served him so well earlier. Thus, the Boni affair and VTsIOM polls should be viewed primarily as the latest act of political theater orchestrated by the Kremlin.
That doesn’t mean that there has not been a real decline in support for Putin, he suggests; but it has been smaller than many seem to think and can easily be reversed by cleverly presented Putin actions, something that those analyzing what is going on or deciding how to react should very much keep in mind.
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