Northern Sea Route Unlikely to Operate on a Regularly Scheduled Year Around Basis Anytime Soon, ‘Siberian Economist’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 16 – Despite the claims of Russian officials, the Northern Sea Route is unlikely to operate on a regularly scheduled year around basis anytime soon, Arseniy Krepov says. Unpredictable weather and Russia’s failure to meet earlier targets and to construct the necessary infrastructure mean such boasts are unlikely to be fulfilled.

            Earlier this month, Igor Tonkovidov, head of the SovKomFlot, told the St. Petersburg Transportation and Logistics Forum in St. Petersburg that the NSR is now operating on a year-round basis. And Rosatom head Aleksey Likhachev said that his icebreakers will soon have the NSR operating in a way “comparable in its regularity and predictability to commuter trains.”

            But those claims are at a minimum overly optimistic and almost certainly unattainable, the Siberian Economy expert says. Weather in the north and in adjoining regions is simply too unpredictable and Russia has not developed the necessary infrastructure on land to support such goals (https://sibmix.com/?doc=20839.

            Indeed, Moscow doesn’t have the money to do so, he continues; and it must turn to China or some other international investor if it is even going to be close to what Putin and other Russian officials are calling anytime in the next several decades. Indeed, this year, the NSR carried only half of the amount Putin projected it would now a few years ago.

            And there is an additional bottleneck which the boosters of the NSR ignore: Most of the cargo carried along the NSR now consists of bulk cargo of oil, gas and coal for export; but sanctions and changes in what other countries are buying and from whom mean that the NSR won’t have any chance of meeting its goals until it diversifies what it carries still further.