Most Expressions of Russian Discontent Still of Loyalist Variety, Dubrovsky Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 9 – The message most Russians now openly expressing discontent remains of a loyalist nature, Dmitry Dubrovsky says, a sign that most still have faith in Putin but not his officials, “although we are beginning to have our doubts” given Internet shutoffs and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian cities.

            The Russian sociologist now at Prague’s Charles University says that the Kremlin and the population of Russia have long operated under an unspoken contract in which the regime promises stability and growth and the latter agrees to stay out of politics (svoboda.org/a/armiya-poklonnikov-siljnoy-vlasti-ustala/33752858.html).

            But that contract has “cracked” at least a little because it “never anticipated a scenario where the internet would be cut off, cities subjected to regular shelling or people would be unable to pay for things simply by using a bank card,” the Russian sociologist continues.

            Many Russians are upset about these developments, but they don’t have either leaders or the experience of acting collectively that allow them to protest in anything like the traditional ways. And that is why some public figures with “absolutely no  connection to political life” have stepped in.

            That has gotten the attention of the Kremlin and analysts in Russia and abroad, who are very much aware that “an authoritarian regime operates under conditions of a severe deficit of reliable information [because] everyone lies to it.” As a result, “it fears everyone, everyone fears it, and thus everyone lies to everyone else.”

            In this situation, Dubrovsky continues, it is important to remember that only “a limited number of people” in Russia love Putin. Most who support him do so for cultural, ideological or completely practical reasons. Their lack of alternatives mean that they have not turned on him because they do not yet have anyone to turn to.

            Moreover, Russians lack solidarity because, as a result of government efforts, people believe that they do not bear responsibility for anyone “because there is an authority – the government – that is responsible for everything.” Solidarity doesn’t simply exist. It is a skill that requires practice and must be learned.

            Putin and his regime have done and will do everything possible to prevent Russians from acquiring that skill. But until Russians learn it, they may be angry about what is going on but they won’t present the kind of challenge to Putin that some imagine, although their anger may be a precondition for the rise of just such a threat.