Russia May Never See Another Upward Wave of Demographic Growth, Academy of Sciences Scholar Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 17 – In the Putin years as in Soviet times, Moscow officials have suggested that any downturn in the numbere of births reflects first and foremost a decline in the number of potential mothers, echoes of the far fewer women born during World War II, and suggested that when they are replaced by a more numerous successor there will be more babies.

            There is some truth in that but it is one that is declining as waves in the number of potential mothers have declined in size both upward and downward and as both have been overwhelmed by a decline in fertility rates as a result of modernization and urbanization, a reality Russian scholars have increasingly pointed out but been ignored by officials.

            Now, in a new study, Oleg Rybakovsky of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences argues that Russia may never have a new upward wave both because the amplitude of the waves in both directions is falling in size and fertility rates are declining for secular reasons and that current policies aren’t compensating for this fact.

            In the latest issue of Population Studies, the demographer at the FRC’s Institute of Socio-Economic Population Problems, he traces what has happened over the last 25 years – the period of Putin’s rule – and shows Moscwo has failed to see this and adopt policies that reflect this reality (narodonaselenie-journal.ru/index.php/population/article/view/11060/10724).

            In a discussion of Rybakovsky’s article, Nakanune journalist Yevgeny Chernyshov argues that this reflets a more general problem: the current regime doesn’t want to be guided by reality but instead acts on the basis of its own convictions many of which no longer correspond to what is actually going on (nakanune.ru/articles/124763/).