Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 8 – Buryatia could
prove to be a metonym for Russia as a whole. The Buddhist republic, Bato
Ochirov says, is one where superficial political stability imposed from above masks
growing social discontent that cannot find any outlet within the political
system and therefore may take the form of anomic violence and popular risings.
In an essay for the AsiaRussia
portal, the Buryat political analyst says that upcoming elections to the
republic’s parliament aren’t going to reflect what is going on in society.
Moscow and its local representatives have things at that “formal” level too
well organized and controlled (asiarussia.ru/articles/19599/).
But precisely because the power vertical
has, Ochirov continues, its managers have left the many people in the population
who are angry about conditions with no means of acting within the system and
thus unwittingly and unintentionally caused the latter to think about acting in
an extra-systemic manner.
That means that “the rickety balance” that
exists in the republic could “at any moment” collapse in the face of popular
risings. There are already signs that things are coming apart. The situation in
the Tunka region two years ago showed how easy it is for the authorities to
lose control if people go into the street and show they are not afraid, the
commentator says.
Their actions, including blocking streets
and refusing to obey the authorities, have since been copied in many other regions
of Buryatia, including most recently in the Yeravna region, the homeland of
many influential people in the regime but also in the religious leadership and
business community.
Few of these actions have attracted much
attention beyond this republic on the Mongolian border, but “today Buryatia on
the socio-political level is like a pot beginning to boil with the appearance
of a few bubbles.” Each week brings fresh evidence that the number of these
bubbles starting in Tunka and in Yeravna are increasing in number and scope.
Some of these actions are “widely known”
at least within the republic and in its capital, but many are not. The big
question is whether they will come together and present the powers that be will
a bubbling pot that the authorities can’t ignore but also can’t prevent from
boiling over.
The situation in Yeravna suggests that the
situation there may already be close to that point. “The central factor of the
destruction of political processes in the region is the lack of any strategy and
philosophy of change. Up to now, ‘the era of change’ [that the Moscow-install
republic head talks about] remains only a declaration” to be put on banners and
then forgotten.
“Today,”
Ochirov continues, Buryatia is made up of a complex mix of inter-ethnic,
domestic political, inter-clan, inter-family and other relationships. Any
mistake in one of these elements can quickly jump to another. At some point, it
is even possible that they will all come together.
According to Ochirov, the existing system
needs to be totally reformed. “The former model” of power in which everything
looks calm but in which real problems are ignored “has exhausted itself.” That is something the Buryat people see – and
it makes them even more angry.
What matters, of course, is that the
Buryats may be far from the only people in Russia who feel that way.
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