Paul Goble
Staunton,
July 6 – Ever more Russians are criticizing the Russian government for
undermining the social state, a position that neither the existing systemic
parties nor the extra-systemic ones have been able to exploit, the former
because they are defenders of the governments actions and the latter because they
criticize the Kremlin from liberal positions.
As
a result, the systemic parties, including United Russia, are losing support
without the extra-systemic ones gaining it, a situation in which the powers
that be may find themselves without a horse to ride on in the upcoming
parliamentary elections and one in which one of the legitimating foundations of
the state could fall away.
As
US-based Russian analyst Kseniya Kirillova points out, this has prompted some pro-Kremlin
siloviki to begin talking about the possibility of forming a new party, one combining
social justice appeals with support for an imperial agenda and thus a real and
potentially very attractive “loyal ‘opposition’” (rusmonitor.com/kseniya-kirillova-voennye-i-chekisty-gotovyat-dlya-sebya-loyalnuyu-oppoziciyu-v-rossii.html).
She points to a June 29 article by Moscow
commentators Aleksandr Staver and Roman Skomorokhov on the influential Vooyennoye obozreniye site entitled “The
Real New Opposition Against the Eternal Putin” in which they argue that United
Russia no longer reflects the attitudes of the Putin majority and that a new
party is needed (topwar.ru/143678-kak-poluchit-realnuyu-novuyu-oppoziciyu.html).
The two concede that many of the problems
with United Russia have arisen because Moscow has promoted the social justice
themes of Soviet times as well as taken liberal steps including on wages and
pension ages that understandably have offended and alienated many members of
what has been up to now the reliable “Putin majority.”
Such unexpected criticism both
implicit and direct should not obscure the real message of Staver and Skmorokhov,
Kirillova says. They are not making any
case for the existing opposition systemic or extra systemic; instead, they are
calling for the formation of an entirely new political party or movement that
would support Putin’s imperialist course while backing greater social welfare,
a kind of national socialism if you will.
The two, the Russian journalist says, “not only do not
see the ‘extra-systemic liberal opposition” either as a threat or a replacement
for Putin. Instead, they directly say that “it does not have any right to
existence” because it has sold out to the West and engages in “illiterate populism.”
Worse, it opposes the Kremlin’s expansionist foreign policy.
They
call for the replacement of the current “party of power” with one that doesn’t feature
the current liberal members of the government, is “younger,” and does not
include just the United Russia electorate and leaders. For them, “the chief
enemies of the country are again declared to be ‘the liberals’ both systemic
and even more extra-systemic.”
In
short, Kirillova says, “the criticism of the authorities here is made only from
the unofficially permitted ‘hurrah patriotic’ positions, in exactly the same
key that this is done by the sadly well known Girkin-Strelkov and his ‘militant
comrades in arms’” from the Donbass front against Ukraine.
And
it should surprise no one that Staver and Skmorokhov draw the conclusion that “there
is no alternative to Putin,” despite their words of criticism. Instead, what
they are seeking is the formation of a new party, left of center in its domestic
views to recapture Russians unhappy with Moscow’s social policy but fully
supportive of its imperialist agenda abroad.
They thus are proposing as a model
for this movement the now almost forgotten ideas of Sergey Udaltsov who in 2014
was sent to jail for his role in the Bolotnoye protests against Putin but who
fully supported the Kremlin leader’s Anschluss of Crimea and his efforts to
recreate the USSR. (Udaltsov laid out his ideas in 2014 at (echo.msk.ru/blog/udaltsov/1285254-echo/).
The two Voyennoye obozreniye writers say that “in contras to the many who
shout that there is ‘no alternative’ [to Putin’s course] we have found an alternative,”
a party and leaders like Udaltsov who just as supportive of an aggressive
foreign policy as Putin but who want to return to a social state the current leftward
drift of Russian society will support.
Such a party could help generate an
ultimate successor to Putin or in the meantime lead to the formation of a more
moderate social policy, both things that some in the Kremlin are clearly
interested in. At the very least, it is an important indication that those
around Putin are thinking how to exploit the leftward tilt of the population
rather than simply suppressing it.
At the same time, Kirillova notes, the
possible formation of such a party and the development of such a trend in
Russian society should remind Ukraine and the West that they should not expect
any softening of Putin’s aggressive foreign policy even after he leaves – and that
moderation at home may be the basis for that rather than its antithesis, as
many now think.
No comments:
Post a Comment