Paul Goble
Staunton,
February 2 – The Putin regime is increasingly applying repression because it no
longer has anything else to offer and because it fears that the population, ever
more of whom have nothing to lose, will only stay in line if its members fear
the powers that be more than the powers that be fear the people, according to
Valery Solovey.
In
comments to Ekho Moskvy’s Irina Vorobyeva of the Special Opinion program, the
MGIMO professor says that the authorities are repeating the Bolshevik mistake
of assuming that anyone who is not with the powers is against them, something
that is forcing Russians to make a moral choice and one not in the Kremlin’s
favor (echo.msk.ru/guests/9032/).
The ongoing
attacks on Open Russia are an illustration of this pattern, Solovey
suggests. Significantly, they are taking
place first in the regions so that some in Moscow will blame them on “’provincial
idiotism,’” although in fact, “the situation in certain places is really
becoming explosive.”
By such actions, the authorities are
unwittingly causing many Russians to assess what is going on from the position
of morality. That had been absent in Russian politics in recent years, but now
it has assumed “colossal importance” and appears likely to force even those who
want to avoid taking a stand to do so.
Those in the regime and in the media
know that this could work against them, Solovey says; but they “hope that if
the situation becomes critical, they will be able to leave the country. They
show this by all their behavior” with their property and even families abroad.
They will leave and “write their memoirs” while Russians who remain will
suffer.
The powers that be hope to push the
date of their own departure off by instilling fear in the population, the
traditional manner of building power in Russia.
But fear only works if people feel they have something to lose. Given
the economic crisis, ever fewer of them do unless the regime plans to jail or
even kill far more of them as Stalin did.
“But as soon as the powers that be
encounter collective resistance, they will immediately pull back,” Solovey
continues, “because those doing the frightening now are themselves very afraid.”
They risk losing not only their comfortable lives but even their lives as such
in the event of a popular rising.
With Russians increasingly
evaluating politicians in moral terms and seeing that the powers that be are
enriching themselves at the expense of the population and offering only
repression in exchange, this possibility is something no one in authority is
prepared to discount entirely.
It may not happen soon, but it may
happen and that is increasingly defining the situation, Solovey continues,
adding that there are two other reasons why repression is increasing and why
ever more Russians are angry about that as well as about the inability of the powers
that be to offer them anything else.
On the one hand, people can see that
“Stalin modernized the country at the expense of the peasants.” But now Putin
is trying to do so “at the expense of the urban population,” a larger and
potentially more dangerous group. And on
the other, it is becoming obvious that there is no “power vertical” in Russia.
That is “an enormous invention.”
There is only the
direct, authoritarian and increasingly repressive rule of a single individual
who may intervene or not on any particular issue but who is not acting
rationally in favor of the country but only in favor of himself.
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