ISIS Stepping Up Recruiting Drive in North Caucasus, Russian Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 17 – Because ISIS no longer controls territory in Syria, the organization is seeking to demonstrate its ability to launch attacks elsewhere, including inside the Russian Federation. But because Moscow has effectively closed the border to them, the only way ISIS can expand its operations in the North Caucasus is to attract new recruits to its ranks.

            That is exactly what it is seeking to do in the North Caucasus, not only by launching various attacks that it can use to attract attention and support but also by putting out fake news about its prowess to achieve the same thing, according to Mikhail Roshchin and Yekaterina Sokiryanskaya (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/335497/).

                “Having lost its territory,” Roshchin, a scholar at Moscow’s Institute of Oriental Studies, says, “ISIS has shifted to network-style activity in other regions, and the Caucasus is not an exception. But the big question is whether it will be able to achieve much” given the effectiveness of Russian siloviki especially in Chechnya. 

            Moreover, he continues, while there are some North Caucasus fighters still in Syria, the chance for them to return to Russia unnoticed is “practically non-existent.” The authorities know who they are and have imposed the tightest possible controls at the Russian border to block their entry.

            As a result, “the only chance for actions in the North Caucasus by ISIS is to attract new supporters locally: to recruit into the network local people whoa re prepared to act in their interests.”  Recent attacks against siloviki in the region suggest that the group may be having some success; but these efforts may also be no more than recruiting PR.

            Sokiryanskaya, the director for the Analysis and Prevention of Conflicts, is inclined to think both factors are at work.  She notes that the attack on siloviki in the Urus-Martan district last month was reported via video and in the ISIS-linked newspaper Naba. 

            “This is a newspaper of the militants, which earlier was disseminated both via the Internet and in printed form on the territory of the Islamic State. Now, ISIS has no territory, and it is disseminated only via the Internet. At the same time, it is not the exclusive source of news about ISIS. The organization has a mass of other media resources.”

            To attract attention to itself and to win new recruits, “the terrorist organization actively fabricates fake news about attacks that in fact didn’t happen.” This helps the group recruit new supporters and “to retain old ones” by suggesting that the group, while forced to retreat, is still a force to be reckoned with.

            Kirill Semenov, a specialist on terrorism at the Russian Council for International Relations, agrees. “Now, the terrorists must show the real existence of their structures in the Caucasus even if they have to use fake reports.” That is important to them for another reason: there is intense competition among terrorist groups.

            At the same time, Sokiryanskaya points out that it is “not so easy” to determine which reports are true and which ones are invented, given widespread distrust among the population in the Russian security agencies and widespread fears there that talking about ISIS to anyone could result in retribution.