Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 5 – The more
intelligent part of the Russian elite fully understands that the regime’s use
of force against protesters in the way that it has is transforming liberals
into revolutionaries and that further use of force, to which the regime seems
to be committed, will only make the situation worse, Aleksandr Kynyev says.
In a wide-ranging interview with
Olga Vandysheva of Kazan’s Business-Gazeta, the regional specialist at Moscow’s
Higher School of Economics argues that it is important to understand the real
cause of the current protests and how different these are than the factors that
pushed people into the streets in 2011-2012 (business-gazeta.ru/article/433741).
“The
main cause” of the protests in Moscow and other cities, Kynyev says, is that “the
powers that be publicly demonstrated their double standards. People have become
accustomed that the authorities will write stupid laws which often cannot be
fulfilled. But here the situation is somewhat different.”
The
2014 law requiring aspiring candidates to obtain an extraordinary number of
signatures on petitions had seemed to the powers that be sufficient to keep opposition
figures out. But when it didn’t, the authorities simply refused to register those
who had in fact done what the law requires.
By
acting in this way, Kynyev continues, “they spat in the face” of the people and
showed that even “unjust laws aren’t written for the authorities.” If they don’t
do what the powers want, the powers will simply ignore them as well. The
failure of the authorities to hide what they were doing “became the trigger”
for the demonstrations.
“The
Moscow situation,” he says, “showed that the coordination of political decisions
on domestic policy over the last several years has simply died. It was quite
harsh under Vladislav Surkov and Vyacheslav Volodin [but] not it in fact doesn’t
exist.” Instead, those involved are focusing instead on “team building” rather
than coming up with decisions.
In
other responses, Kynev says that the idea that the extra-systemic opposition has
been radical is “absolutely” a myth. “For the last several years, the so-called
extra-systemic opposition has done everything to fit in.” If the powers that be
had integrated it rather than come up with the idea that it had to be
suppressed, Russia would be a very different place now.
Kynyev
argues as well that the protests now are different from those of 2011-2012 in
every important respect. The earlier protests were about election results and
did not have a specific character. “It was an emotional protest against mass
falsifications. The meetings did not have specific leaders.”
“Now,
however, has occurred the first systemic protest action in the history of the
country in defense of the rights for participation in elections of specific
people,” the scholar says. Moreover, “there is not a single politician of the 1990s
among the current leaders of the protests. Not one.”
Because
the authorities weren’t prepared to recognize this new possibility, they have set
in train the further politicization of the elections.” And this is “irreversible,”
Kynyev says. “Protest voting will be massive. The authorities will lose a
significant number of districts.” And even though United Russia will retain a
majority, it will behave differently with a large opposition present.
The
biggest and most immediate loser in all this is Mayor Sobyanin who after
declaring that the police had behaved “correctly” has lost almost any chance to
recover. “He showed that for Muscovites, he is absolutely alien.”
“The
only way for the mayor to calm the situation is to end the arrests and
detentions and to allow the registration of the candidates. Then would possibly
occur some kind of normalization. The continuation of the scandal will lead to further
delegitimization and mobilization around the protest.” But Sobyanin is unlikely to take the necessary
actions.
The
powers that be are not ready for any compromise although the opposition is. It
has sent numerous signals in that regard. “Why the Kremlin doesn’t want to
interact is an exclusively psychological question, in my view,” Kynyev says,
the result of personal phobias and resentments of specific persons.”
These
phobias have been obscured by and even taken the form of the notion spread
about by “paranoids from the special services” that Russia faces a “color”
revolution and must act resolutely against it. That idea simply isn’t true, but there is very much an
erosion in public confidence in and support for the authorities.
Ever more Russians understand that the
current regime is “unjust, ineffective” and willing to do anything the elites
want rather than act in the interests of the population as a whole, Kynyev
says. Force may keep that in check for a while longer, but the longer the
authorities use force against the people, the worse things will be for the
authorities in the end.
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