Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 14 – In the wake of
the brutal actions of the siloviki against Moscow protesters and the falling
ratings of Putin and his regime, many are speculating that the Kremlin is going
to move toward a Chekist dictatorship and only mass public protests can prevent
such a horrific outcome.
But Moscow political commentator
Valery Solovyey, formerly an instructor at MGIMO, argues that there is an even
more important source of resistance to such a development: Russian elites, who
do not want to suffer as they would if “a police-chekist dictatorship” were
established (echo.msk.ru/blog/vsolovej/2482397-echo/).
Solovyey gives five reasons why this
is so:
1.
“There
is completely lacking the ideological and what is most important organizational
and cadres basis for a dictatorship.”
2.
The
entire elite, including the siloviki, are “categorically against a dictatorship
of the chekists.” They are “cowardly opportunists” but they are quite skilled at
“sabotage” and will undermine any attempt to set up such a dictatorship.
3.
“Putin
doesn’t need a dictatorship.” Giving the siloviki “carte blanche” to repress
challenges “do not mean giving the siloviki a license to establish a new political
regime. And going against ‘the leader’ is something the heads of the siloviki
party are not in a position to do.”
4.
The
use of force against protest won’t suppress it but rather spread it and it will
both intensify tensions among the various components of the siloviki and highlight
how thin this stratum is. After all to control the situation in Moscow, they’ve
had to bring in OMON units “from throughout the European part of Russia and from
the Urals.”
5.
“The
public denial by the Kremlin of ‘a political crisis’ in reality means its recognition
of a new discourse reality,” one that means both there will be more protests
and a variety of efforts, not just force alone, to cope with it.
In his brief comment,
Solovyey does not make reference to what may the most compelling precedent for
his conclusion: the decision of the post-Stalin leaders, all of whom had blood
on their hands from the repressions, to arrest and kill Lavrenty Beria, lest
the secret police chief establish a chekist dictatorship in which all of them
would be at risk.
They acted not from some
abstract commitment to some principle beyond saving their own lives and
careers. That almost certainly will
guide them if there is any indication that some in the Kremlin are preparing to
try to create a state that might be strong enough to save Putin but would also
be powerful enough to destroy them.
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