Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 28 – Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov says the future status of Ukraine’s Donbass should be like
what Moscow has proposed for Moldova’s breakaway region of Transdniestria, Vitaly
Portnikov says. That would mean the permanent federalization and neutralization
of Ukraine ensured by the continued presence of Russian troops.
The author of this plan, Andrey
Yermak, a deputy prime minister of the Russian Federation, has been in active
contact with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian commentator says
(radiosvoboda.org/a/30187796.html
in Ukrainian; charter97.org/ru/news/2019/9/28/349998/ in Russian).
This
idea is now in active competition with two others: the first is that Vladislav
Surkov, a Putin aide, has long been associated with, “the preservation of ‘the
peoples republics’ as quasi-states, as levers on Ukraine and an instrument for
the profit of the Russian political elite; and the second, that of Dmitry
Kozak, who wants “the incorporation” of these republics into Ukraine but with “the
preservation of their ‘state infrastructure’ and of course the Russian military
presence.”
Such
a plan would also allow Russian elites to profit and ensure the neutralization of
Ukraine, Portnikov says. And in this regard, he continues, Zelensky’s constant
talk about a referendum on Euro-Atlantic integration is a means by which
Ukrainians could give up any drive to join NATO and thus represents “preparation
for ‘a quiet capitulation’” to Moscow.
In
his statement, Lavrov declared that “the law is the law but the opinion of the self-proclaimed
republics must be considered,” words that gut the Minsk Agreements and mean
that mean what the chief goal of Moscow is “the preservation of ‘peoples
republics’ and of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory” to ensure Ukraine remains
neutral.
The
same goal animates the proposals of Surkov and Kozak with only this difference:
In Surkov’s mind, the peoples republic would remain “puppet ‘states’ under the Kremlin’s
protectorate, while in Kozak’s, they would be that “but with their formal
return into the composition of Ukraine.”
Zelensky
must reject “the dangerous illusion” that it is possible to achieve an
agreement with the Kremlin “on Russian conditions,” Portnikov says. Instead, “Kyiv’s
goal must be the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country and
the real re-integration of the Donbass,” not its return as a cancerous and
potentially fate tumor within Ukraine.
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