Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 30 – Thirty
years ago today, Vladimir Putin sent tanks into Chechnya and launched the
second Chechen war, a conflict few talk about anymore. But overcoming the
results of that war will be even more difficult for Russia after Putin than
making peace with Ukraine, according to Konstantin Eggert.
Few Russians talk about the second
Chechen war or even the first for understandable reasons, the Russian
commentator for Deutsche Welle says.
They have gone through so many chances so fast that they have adopted “a
short memory” as a defense mechanism (dw.com/ru/комментарий-забытая-но-незаконченная-война-в-чечне/a-50620204).
But the second Chechen war, Eggert
continues, “undoubtedly is the most important mile post in the contemporary
history of Russia. And not only because it was precisely the event that
transformed Vladimir Putin, a hitherto unknown FSB chief into almost the single
ruler of Russia.”
It also enjoys that status because it
was the second Chechen that laid down “the beginning of neo-Soviet imperial
policy of the Kremlin which remains one of the foundations of the regime
founded by Putin.” According to Eggert, “today’s ‘we can repeat it!’ is a
direct extension of the Second Chechen.”
Russians of course wanted stability and
predictability after the revolutionary years between 1989 and 1999, he says,
but their desire for a strong hand does not explain what happened, although it
is entirely possible that such attitudes made the second Chechen war “inevitable.”
But even if that is true, the
consequences of that war have hardly been those people expected 20 years ago,
the commentator continues. It wasn’t simply “’a short victorious war.’” And it arrived at an armistice only with
Moscow becoming the chief subsidizer and supporter of the Kadyrov clan.
“According to official data,” Moscow
provides “more than 80 percent” of Chechnya’s budget. Grozny looks better than
most regional capitals elsewhere in Russia, and its elite is far richer, hardly
what one might have expected if the Second Chechen was all about highlighting
Russian power and Chechen defeat.
Moreover, “Ramzan Kadyrov, being
nominally the head of one of almost 80 Russian regions in fact looks like the
second most influential politician in the country to whom no one can give an
order except Putin. His opponents have either been expelled or they are dead,”
Eggert says.
“Under the pretext of guaranteeing
security during that war, the Putin regime over the course of several years eliminated
all the structures which guaranteed democracy and the supremacy of law in the
country and of those few forces and influence which they had from the courts to
the regional and central officials to the media.
According to Eggert, “the children
and even grandchildren of those who 20 years ago were glad that ‘the empire had
struck back’ in Chechnya, today are reaping the fruits of that delight, even though
many of them may not think about that connection or even guess about this
linkage.”
All this heritage of the second
Chechen war is “the problem that will be almost the most difficult of all for a
new Russian democratic power too deal with when it arrives on the historical
scene. Even ending the war with Ukraine,”
the commentator says, in his opinion, “will be simpler.”
That is all the more the case for
another reason as well. Up to now, the Russian opposition prefers to remain
silent about that war. “And this silence is the best indicator of how long and painful
it will be to overcome it.”
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