Election in Belarus More Threatening to Russia than Maidan in Ukraine Was, Inozemtsev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 1 – The spread of protests and unrest in Belarus has the potential to become a far greater threat to the Kremlin than the Maidan in Ukraine ever did, according to Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev. Some will find that encouraging, while others will view it as dangerous.

            Six months ago, Belarus appeared to be the most “’peaceful’” place in Europe where Alyaksandr Lukashenka ruled and the population did not protest. But now all that has changed, and the change in Minsk presages changes in Moscow that may be even more epochal, Inozemtsev says  (t.me/kremlebezBashennik/14272).

            For many years, Lukashenka showed the way forward for Putin, he continues. Lukashenka “zeroed out” his presidential terms 16 years before Putin is trying to do the same thing.  “He outplayed his eastern neighbor, constantly offering Russia abstract promises for real assistance.” And he spat on the coronavirus even as Putin was struggling to deal with it.

            But it has turned out that “26 years of autocracy is too much” in Belarus.

            “Last week, it became known what in the post-Soviet world both ‘powers’ and ‘opposition’ are worth,” Inozemtsev continues.  Lukashenka has scheduled presidential elections for August 9 and the powers have blocked a popular opposition figure from registering.  But the Belarusian people are no longer willing to sit still for this.

            Over the weekend, in spontaneous fashion, 100,000 of them stood in line for hours not just in Minsk but throughout the country to sign a petition for the candidacy of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of a blogger who has been detained without cause. And she isn’t even the leader in the race: polls show Lukashenka losing to Viktor Babariko of Belgazprombank.

            Lukashenka is going to find it hard to make up the deficit by falsification, especially if people know how they voted – and they are not going to vote for him.

            “Belarus is not Ukraine,” the Russian economist says. “Russia has always been cautious about Kyiv but sympathetic to Minsk” and created a Union state including the two countries. But if Belarusians vote on August 9 in the way they seem likely to, then “August 2020 will become for Russia the most ‘August’ August” since 1991.

            Putin may be able to ram through approval of his constitutional amendments and orchestrate regional elections in September. But and this is what is critical, Inozemtsev suggests, “the problems in Russia are exactly the same as in Belarus” and consequently what happens in Belarus will be a specter of what can happen in Russia.

            No country is going to exit the coronavirus pandemic easily. “Economic problems are only beginning, and the powers in Russia” show no disposition to help.  “Yes, the Kremlin has thought up virtual voting. That’s remarkable, but it won’t be able to help if people all know how they voted.

            “The end of Lukashenka is thus the beginning of the end of Putin given that the former’s appearance on the political scene prepared Russians for the acceptance of an authoritarian style of rule and of the models of the Soviet past,” the economist continues. And that is in many ways quite remarkable.

            “Minsk in 2020 may be able to do what Kyiv couldn’t in 2004 or 2014. And however sad it may be to recognize, the history of Russia, just like a quarter of a century ago may again be being written in Belarus,” Inozemtsev concludes.