Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 28 – When the
pandemic began, many Moscow commentators suggested that its economic
consequences, likely to hit immigrant workers from Central Asia and the
Caucasus first, would lead to protest actions in Russia. When that didn’t
happen in the capitals or other major cities, most concluded that the
immigrants weren’t going to act.
But that was myopic, Russian
commentator Aleksandr Shustov says. Immigrant protests “have all the same begun”
just not where the commentators expected but rather along the borders Moscow
has closed to combat the coronavirus (ritmeurasia.org/news--2020-06-28--vystuplenija-migrantov-vse-zhe-nachalis-49678).
There, he continues, a genuine “crisis”
has emerged.
The largest case of this was along
the Russian-Azerbaijani border where two weeks ago, some 400 Azerbaijanis
unable to return home clashed with police. Seven siloviki were wounded, and 93
participants were arrested after they sought to block a highway to call
attention to their plight.
But that is hardly the only such migrant
protest. At the end of April, Tajiks clashed with police at a detention
facility near Yekaterinburg in response to the same situation: They wanted to
go home but couldn’t (tass.ru/ural-news/8345151).
To prevent a repetition, the regional authorities organized a flight home on
May 26 for most of those involved.
Shustov reports that the embassies
of the Central Asian countries are working to organize such flights, apparently
fearful that if there is violence, workers from their countries won’t be able
to return after the crisis and won’t be sending home essential transfer
payments (asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/society/20200623/posol-tadzhikistana-v-rossii-aviabileti-na-charteri-budut-prodavatsya-strogo-po-spisku
and facebook.com/KyrgyzstanMFA/).
This problem has been exacerbated by
two other trends: On the one hand, many Russians believe that migrant workers
are a source of crime; and on the other, reports about coronavirus deaths among
the migrants have led many to conclude that the migrants are a major threat to
the health of Russians (tj.sputniknews.ru/migration/20200623/1031457800/podrobnosti-smerti-migrant-dostavlennykh-Russia-Tajikistan.html
and fergana.site/news/118485/).
As serious as the consequences of
these views and the clashes are to Russia, unemployment among those in Russia
may have even more fateful ones. Financial transfers home by such workers have
fallen by as much as 22 percent so far and are projected to fall far more when the
May numbers are reported (fergana.site/news/119191/
and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/06/unemployment-among-migrants-in-russia.html).
What
will happen in the future when the pandemic ebbs remains unclear. In the short
term, the problem of migrant unemployment and anger is the more important. In
the longer term, especially if Russia tries to do without immigrant workers as
some suggest, the impact of this loss of income on Central Asian countries could
be their radical destabilization.
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