Unintended Consequences of Its Actions Threatens to Overwhelm Putin Regime, Shevtsova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 5 – Throughout history, governments have often pursued one goal only to see that pursuit lead to other outcomes, often entirely unwelcome. That is what is happening in Russia today, Liliya Shevtsova says, where this “law of unintended consequences” is undermining the Putin regime.

            At present, the Russian commentator says, the powers that be in Russia have seeking to solve “two systemic tasks” – preventing the emergence of any new Gorbachev and escaping from the Yeltsin-era arrangements in which elections could actually displace the ruling clans (facebook.com/ShevtsovaLilia/posts/2621330718123743).

            To those ends, the Kremlin is working to “cement” the existing power arrangements and to do so “without the participation of society and without headaches.”  But for it to succeed, it must “quickly solve a number of tasks:”

·         First of all, Shevtsova says, it must somehow resolve the underlying conflict between the desire of the current ruler to remain in power for life and his legitimation by election because the latter carries with it the threat of change.

·         “Second, the current leader must do everything in order to avoid becoming ‘a lame duck’ at the end of the completion of his current term. He must stop any guessing about who will come next” because that undermines  his own power.

·         “Third, he must prepare for a growth of tension” in society because the regime is running out of resources to buy off the population.

·         And “fourth, he must prepare a mechanism of succession which will keep the Kremlin in the hands of the ruling corporation” after he does leave. But he must do so in a way that will not undermine his current rule. “This is the most difficult trick,” Shevtsova suggests.

 According to the Russian analyst, “the coronavirus simplified the formation of a new regime by liquidating the possibility of mass resistance. But the irony is that the means the authorities are using to solidify their hold on power are creating for it still more destructive threats.”

Among the most obvious of these, Shevtsova says, are the following: 

·         “The destruction of constitutional foundations makes illegal consciousness the norm for both the authorities and society. This means the dissolution of the state which has become the property of clan groups and the readiness of society for the struggle against injustice, inequality and humiliation without any legal limitations.”

·         “The liquidation of the legal channels for the expression of the attitudes of society leads to attempts to articulate them ‘via the streets.’”

·         “The strengthening of the monopoly of power of one clan destroys the chances for ‘lifts’ for other segments of the political class” thus destroying elite consensus and making the likelihood of challenges by one group to the rulers more likely.

·         With the rise of social protest, some within the elite may become ever more ready to make alliances with the population and throw other members of the current elite “’under the bus.’”

·         “The shift to repressive instruments of rule will strengthen the siloviki bloc in the Kremlin and weaken the role of the leader as moderator with corresponding consequences for the remainder of the political class.”

·         “The use of historical victories for the legitimation of the powers testifies to the absence of other ideological slogans except one, ‘Russia is surrounded by enemies.’” But that is ever less effective with a population that doesn’t want to live in “’a fortress.’”

·         And using foreign policy and playing at being a great power “to compensate for internal failures no longer works. And it won’t work even if the collapse of the surrounding world allows for a chance to enter the world scene and show off.”  

In Shevtsova’s words, “the bitter irony is that the voting on the constitutional ‘corrections’ is intended to become an expression of the agreement of the people to voluntary give up elections as a means of changing the powers. Clever,is it not?! Especially since the mechanism of ‘voting’ already guarantees the Kremlin the result it needs.”

“But proposing to society that it castrate itself in this way may become the basis for its awakening and with far reaching consequences,” the analyst continues.  Many Russians may not care about the constitution, but its demolition means that “now the powers can do anything,” because all limits have been removed.  

And that raises two questions: How long will society wait to act to save itself from this threat? And what will happen when whatever patience Russians have runs out? The powers that be are clearly worried that this time is not far distant and that the consequences could be serious given the regime’s increasing turn to repressive mechanisms.

The regime faces another disappointment as well, Shevtsova continues, on the international front.  Its hope for benefiting from de-globalization is misplaced. At best, it will leave Russia in the second tier of world powers, far below where the Kremlin imagines it to be now.

There too the law of unintended consequences is working, and working against the Kremlin, she concludes.