Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 16 – While one
Russian in four thinks Alyaksandr Lukashenka falsified the results of the presidential
vote there and only one in five thinks that the official reports are entirely
trustworthy, only one Russian in 16 – six percent – thinks the demonstrations
in Belarus are about to drive Lukashenka from power, according to a new VTsIOM
poll.
And the overwhelming majority of
Russians say that the protests in Belarus will not have any significant impact
in Russia, a reflection of an underlying view among Russians that street
protests however justified by official actions are unlikely to change anything,
Olga Slabada of Svobodnaya pressa says in reporting the poll (svpressa.ru/politic/article/273440/).
Anna Ochkina, a sociologist at the
Moscow Center for the Institute of Social Analysis, shares that view, although
she goes on to say that nonetheless, many Russians will be talking about what
is going on in Belarus for some time because of the importance of that country
for the Russian Federation.
Aleksandr Perendzhiyev, a political
scientist at Moscow’s Russian Economics University, says that another reason
for Russian attitudes about what is going on in Belarus is that they “have seen
what such protests and color revolutions can lead” and don’t want any
repetitions.
“Many in Belarus want to turn to the
West and to Europe,” Perendzhiyev continues. “But everyone understands that
sharp movements do not end well either for the economy or the people. It is
clear that Lukashenka is an authoritarian leader who has even a dose of
totalitarianism, and I don’t intend to justify him.”
“But the situation has so evolved
that if Lukashenka is removed from his post and the state descends into chaos,
the people will only lose from that. If earlier people believed in color
revolutions, now everyone understands that they will not lead to anything good”
but instead install more thieving local elites and allow outsiders to control
more of the economy.
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