Azerbaijan Must Be Prepared for Armenians to Carry Out a Partisan War Against It, Ukrainian Security Analyst Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 31 – Armenia is not in a position to take revenge on Azerbaijan with a direct military attack, but because it is supported by Russia and because the political transition in Yerevan is taking place under slogans about revenge, Baku must be prepared to counter a partisan war against it by “Armenian illegal armed formations,” Aleksandr Kovalenko says.

            In an interview with Baku’s Korrespondent portal, the Ukrainian military-political analyst, says that Armenian on its own “now is incapable of revanchist military operations.” It has Russia’s backing but not for a military attack. However, Armenian armed formations in Qarabagh will likely engage in partisan war for some time (korrespondent.az/news/aleksandr-kovalenko-azerbaydjanskim-voennym-sleduet-gotovitysya-k-partizanskoy-voyne/9255).

`           In other comments, Kovalenko says that Moscow has successfully pursued two goals in its approach to the Qarabagh conflict. It has sought to preserve an Armenian presence there, and it has inserted its own forces as peacekeepers to ensure that that destabilizing factor remains in place and that Moscow can decide if and when violence will occur.

            And Kovalenko said that Ukraine is studying Azerbaijan’s highly successful use of drones in its operations but indicated that the situation in the Donbass and even more in Crimea does not allow Kyiv the same opportunities that Baku had during its military campaign. Thus, anything Ukraine learns, it will have to modify before applying it.