Kremlin and FSB Control of Senior Military Appointments Behind Failure of Russian Military in Ukraine, Focus Groups of Retired Officers Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – Senior officers are now chosen not by their colleagues in the army but by the Kremlin and the FSB with the result being that those on top are selected because of their loyalty to the country’s leader rather than their professional competence. Not surprisingly, that has proved disastrous in the conduct of military operations.

            According to Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speech writer and now a Putin critic, that conclusion is offered by focus groups consisting of retired Russian army officers who are well familiar with the problem and want there to be changes (vot-tak.tv/94315382/armiya-i-kreml-gallyamov).

            Those who oppose Putin, the commentator says, need to support the de-politicization of military promotions, a step that would be good for the country and popular with the military, Gallyamov says. Otherwise, the Russian army will continue to do poorly and eventually there will be yet another Prigozhin mutiny, perhaps one that will be more successful than the first.  

             Gallyamov does not provide any details about who organized these focus groups, who took part, and when they occurred. But the attitudes he reports are entirely plausible given the Russian military's traditional anger at having the politicians override the professionals when it comes to appointing senior commanders and giving orders.  

Putin Right to Call for the Russian People to Endure Ukrainian Drone Attacks but Dangerously Wrong to Act as if Elites Don’t Have To, Pastukhov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 12 – Putin and his regime are “completely correct” in calling for Russians to show patience in enduring the current wave of Ukrainian drone attacks, Vladimir Pastukhov says; but he and his colleagues are dangerously wrong to then act as if that appeal doesn’t apply to them.

            Russian elites are able to get gasoline when others cannot and to avoid sending their sons to fight in Ukraine when the offspring of others are not able to do the same, the London-based Russian analyst says (t.me/v_pastukhov/1952 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/poterpet-oni-predlagayut-drugim-a-ne-sebe).

            During World War II, members of the elite, including Stalin’s own children, fought in the war and all suffered from the shortages and risks; but now, the Putin regime is calling on Russians as a whole to suffer but not showing any willingness for its own members to do the same, Pastukhov says.

            That pattern risks triggering “a sense of class hatred,” with those being encouraged to endure saying that those doing the encouraging aren’t willing to endure the same things.  This all started, of course, a decade ago when Russians were told “there is no money but you need to hold on.” Now the situation is far worse because it is far more obvious. 

September Duma Elections Won’t Be Much Different than Those in 2021, Kynyev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – The upcoming Duma elections are likely to resemble the ones held in 2021, according to Aleksandr Kynyev, an independent political scientist who has now released a 51-page report with nine conclusions supporting his overall judgment about why the upcoming vote is not going change the Russian political system in any major way.

            One of the most thoughtful commentators about regional politics in the Russian Federation says, as his first conclusion, that the September voting will “continue a steqdy trend towards the contraction of political competition” (disk.yandex.ru/d/MoE3bjyo4qEyIQ summarized at ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/10/stabilnost-ili-modifitsirovannii-status-kvo-a20052).

            His second conclusion is that there will be a sharp decline in the total number of elections, largely because of the elimination of elected municipal councils. His third is that there will be 11 gubernatorial elections, an increase in only one from 2021. His fourth is that the trend toward the appointment of outsiders as governors will continue.        

            Kynyev’s fifth conclusion is that there won’t be a radical reduction in the share of seats elected on the proportional system. His sixth is that what is going on reflects Moscow’s striving for stability. His seventh is that more parties will cooperate in groups, thus further limiting competition and representation of various interests.

            The political scientist’s eighth conclusion based on his survey of regional elections is that with only one exception, the permitted size of spending on elections  won’t change. And the ninth is that ever more regions are now allowing the collection of signatures on nominating petitions via online public service platforms.

Melnichenko’s Message No Different than the One Putin has Been Delivering for Some Time, Parkhomenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 11 – Sergey Melnichenko’s article in The Economist is being widely discussed in both Russia and the West as an alternative vision of the future; but in fact, Sergey Parkhomenko says, it is “quintessentially Putinesque” and almost certainly was “crafted” in the Kremlin itself. 

            According to the commentator, Putin is indeed seeking “alternative channels of communication” given the shortcomings of his current messengers but his message remains unchanged—and the Russian oligarch in the British publication has “conveyed all his terms” (t.me/sparkhomenkovoice/3916 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/eto-sovershenno-putinskoe-poslanie).

            Parkhomenko argues that “the key phrase” in the  article, one Putin has used before, is this:  “the choice for external players is not between a friendly Russia and a hostile one. It is between a Russia whose behavior is predictable and a Russia whose trajectory is unknown. In the world now taking shape, predictability matters more than likability."

            Such logic is “very primitive,” Parkhomenko continues, “however much it is all dressed up in complex jargon and convoluted sentences.” And it has only one meaning: The Russian ruler “wants to survive and he hopes to somehow wriggle out [of his current difficulties] and hold on to power.”

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Prompt Kremlin to Ram Through Law Loosening Controls on Weapons and Night Vision Devices

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – In the weeks since Ukraine expanded its drone attacks on Russia, the Kremlin has rammed through a new law, introduced on June 4 and signed by Putin on July 4, loosing restrictions on ownership of guns and night vision thermal imaging devices.

            This loosening of restrictions had long been sought by Russian gun owners, but it has taken place, they and their supporters say, only in response to the Ukrainian attacks and the Russian army’s inability to stop them (echofm.online/news/putin-podpisal-popravki-v-zakon-ob-oruzhii-chto-eto-znachit).

            It follows another legal innovation in March, one that also is related to the war in Ukraine and reverses Moscow’s policies on guns, which is allowing private firms to acquire military-grade weaponry to defend their facilities from drone attacks (t.me/echoonline_news/23487 and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/05/moscows-failure-to-block-drone-attacks.html).

            These legal changes will lead to a growing influx of guns into the hands of ordinary Russians, a trend that will make it more likely that those who commit crimes will use weapons to do so and thus make the job of the Russian police far more difficult than it has been in the past (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/08/fsb-raids-underground-armament-firms-in.html).  

Russia No Longer on Demographic Roller Coaster But on What is Now a Permanent Decline, Krupnov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – In the decades after World War II, Russia’s demographic trajectory had long been on a roller coaster trajectory with larger and smaller generations following each other in ever decreasing echoes of the enormous losses of women of childbearing age during that conflict, Yury Krupnov says.

            But not that pattern is over, the Moscow demographer says, and been replaced by a long-term if not permanent decline with the waves that had been true in the past no longer significant compared with the decline in fertility rates as a result of modernization and urbanization (business-gazeta.ru/article/706478).

            This has been true in fact since 1964, he argues; but neither the Soviet nor the Russian leadership has recognized this demographic catastrophe, preferring both in the past and again now to assume that somehow the current demographic “pit” will give way on its own to a demographic boom.

            That isn’t going to happen, and the consequences in terms of demography, economics, and national security are immense and will only increase with time.  And because these are so great, it is time to stop assuming the band aid measures like giving bonuses to women who have children will work.

            If the birthrate is to grow again – and that is nothing that is going to happen on its own, Krupnov says – the Russian government must commit itself not only to creating an economic situation in which people will want to have children but promoting an ideology that having a large family is good for them and for their country.

            Those are enormous tasks and will take large amounts of money and may not succeed given the trend to single child or child free couples; but unless it is recognized that if they do not succeed, Russia will be depopulated and can hardly expect to remain in a position to control its enormous land. 

New Ukrainian Study Says Eight out of Ten Russian Regions Capable of Rapidly Becoming Independent Countries Once Moscow Collapses

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Eight of the ten republics and regions in the Russian Federation that Ukrainian scholars have examined are capable of rapidly transforming themselves into independent countries once the imperial center in Moscow collapses, according to a new report on the prospects for their independence discussed at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.  

            Valery Pekar, head of the Decolonization organization and one of the authors of the report, observed that Moscow “constantly uses arguments about the economic, humanitarian, political and other shortcomings of its own regions to justify its colonial policies” (abn.org.ua/en/analysis/arguments-for-decolonization-of-russia/).

              But notes that UN Resolution 1514 of December 1960 explicitly states that “insufficient economic or political readiness cannot be used as a reason to postpone independence” and urges that everyone look beyond Moscow’s arguments regarding how “prepared” Russia’s regions and republics are to stand on their own.

              According to another author of the republic, Ukrainian economist Andriy Dligach, the widely reported insolvency of Russia’s regions is Not a natural fact but a constructed reality” because “a region can receive more from the center than it earns” not because it is poor but because of the disproportionate “rents” Moscow extracts.

              The Ukrainian scholars selected ten regions for the first “wave” of this study: Ingria, Kuban, Oirat-Kalmykia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, the Urals, Komi, Siberia, Sakha-Yakutia, and Buryatia, a deliberately “diverse” group of rich and poor, northern and southern, large and small, non-Russian and ethnic Russian, and with high and low protest activity.

              The Ukrainian team examined each of these in terms of “three indices of regional well-being: economic, humanitarian and political” and concluded that all ten could exist independently once Moscow disappears as the imperial center and that “at least eight … are capable of quickly transitioning to independence.

According to the Ukrainian investigators, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) have “the highest political capacity” to move quickly to independence.  But others can follow because the money and fear that Moscow has used to hold things together are both quicky running out.

But the report doesn’t idealize the future. According to Pekar,  “some states will embark on the path to democracy. Others will become democratic republics. Still others may turn into dictatorships.” After all, that has been the experience of Ukraine and other non-Russians who escaped Russian rule in 1991. Others who do now will be the same.

Moscow’s Plans to Boost Russian Presence on Svalbard Compromised by Lack of Ships Qualified to Sail there, Artikugol Director Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – To counter Western moves in the Arctic and to expand Russian influence there, Moscow has announced programs to bring as many as 50,000 tourists from the Russian Federation to Norway’s Svalbard archipelago; but a senior Russian businessman there says that Russia currently lacks the ships capable of doing so.

            Ildar Neverov, head of Artikugol, the Russian coal mining enterprise there, has told TASS that Russia currently lacks enough ice-capable passenger ships to carry out that plan, a situation he hopes Moscow will overcome (tass.ru/ekonom, ika/27904085 and ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/artikugol-hocet-rassirit-turizm-na-svalbarde-no-ispytyvaet-nehvatku-podhodasih-sudov/453545).

            Planes are not enough, he says, because none come directly from Russia and thus there are visa problems as well as capacity; and the number of ships available is far too small to handle anything like the number of tourists and workers for the coal mines that Moscow would like to see in Svalbard in the future.

            What represents an especially serious problem, he suggests, is that many of the ships now being used are more than 40 years old and thus do not have the electronic systems that can protect them against icebergs, a requirement since Moscow’s icebreaker fleet is committed elsewhere, and Russian yards are not now building the needed passenger ships.

            For background on Russia’s plans to use tourism as part of an effort to project Russian power in Svalbard, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/06/moscow-organizes-summer-school-in.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/11/moscow-plans-to-build-infrastructure-on.html.

Russian Foreign Ministry Denies Moscow Planning to Re-Introduce Soviet-Style Exit Permits

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Among the most highly valued rights that Russians gained with the collapse of the Soviet system was the right to travel abroad at will rather than having to get the permission of the authorities to do so. Consequently, any report that Moscow is planning to reintroduce such a system draws angry denials.

            This week, the We Can Explain telegram channel said that its sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Presidential Administration said that such restrictions were under discussion and preparing to take just such a step (t.me/mozhemobyasnit/23637 and echofm.online/news/rossijskij-mid-gotovit-zakonoproekt-o-vvedenii-vyezdnyh-viz-mozhem-obyasnit).

            That report immediately drew an angry reaction from the foreign ministry which described it as classic disinformation by foreign agents and pointing out that it had been disseminated only by outlets  that had been identified as working for Russia’s enemies (https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/07/2026/6a50ee639a7947707e6d98ed).

            But despite that denial, many Russians are likely to be disturbed by the initial reports especially as they suggested that the Kremlin planned to introduce it gradually so as to test the waters and to present such restrictions as part of a Russian government effort to “protect” Russians who might travel abroad.

            According to the We Can Explain portal, “the proposal is that tourists from the Russian Federation would only be able to travel to 'unfriendly' countries (NATO nations) in groups of at least 10 people, accompanied by a guide and following an approved itinerary. This will be presented as a measure 'for the safety of Russian citizens.'"

            Presumably, if the reports are true, the Russian government will gradually tighten the system and require exit visas for Russians who want to travel to any country and not just NATO member states. But even if they are not, such stories will increase both the fears and angers of the Russian population about what the Kremlin intends.

Marxism Triumphed First in Russia Because Its Core Value, the Denial of Freedom, was ‘Characteristic of Russian National Consciousness,’ Tsipko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 9 – Many Moscow commentators and politicians are suggesting that Russia’s future should involve the restoration of the Soviet system, a view that reflects their ignorance of what Soviet Marxism was about, how many different forms it took, and why it ultimately failed, Aleksandr Tsipko says.

            Typically, the senior Russian political commentator says, advocates of a return to the Soviet past “do not say which socialism we should return to,” something important because of the enormous differences between Stalin’s socialism and Khrushchev’s (mk.ru/social/2026/07/09/nazad-k-socializmu-chto-stoit-za-prizyvami-vernut-sovremennuyu-rossiyu-v-proshloe.html).

            For some reason, those calling for a return to Soviet socialism “never say anything good about Khrushchevian socialism.” Instead, they routinely insist that “the tragedy is that Khrushchev began to reform the Soviet system as created by Stalin and therefore allegedly opened the way to the death of the USSR.”

            “All the currently fashionable ideologists who are calling for a return to socialism do not take into account that, as Marx insisted, a socialist economy is to be build on the principle of militarization” and the authoritarianism needed to keep the system in that state, Tsipko continues.

            One reason that Stalinist socialism is so attractive to such people is that the Marxist “utopia,” with “its denial of freedom, morality and the value of human” are congruent with “our native Russian nationalism.” That is why it was in Russia that Bolshevism arose in that country and why the Soviets were the first to try to realize the ideas of Marx.

            Soviet socialism survived as long as it did, the commentator says, largely because it was imperfect. It was saved by the private plots of peasants who raised much of the country’s food and by the sale of oil and other natural resources abroad. When the latter failed to bring in enough money, the entire house of cards collapsed.

            Anyone who seriously wants to advocate Russia’s return to Soviet-style socialism, Tsipko says, needs to address these questions and ask himself and others seriously whether Russians really want to go through another cycle of repression, suffering and ultimately collapse.

            Although the fact that Marxist utopianism and Russian national consciousness have so much in common is clearly the reason why there are so many advocates in Moscow today for the revival of such a disastrous project, the senior Russian commentator who lived most of his life in Soviet times suggests.

Permafrost Melting Seen Increasing Radioactive Contamination of Ob and Irtysh Rivers

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 9 – Research by the Russian Academy of Sciences shows that the radioactive contamination of the Ob and Irtysh, high after the Soviets began testing nuclear weapons in the area, has fallen to acceptable levels but says that the melting of the permafrost as a result of global warming is leading to its increase again.

            In what they describe as the  first comprehensive analysis of radiation contamination of these two Siberian rivers, the scholars say that there is a real danger that the progress Russia has achieved in cutting radiation may be overwhelmed by the impact of the melting of permafrost.

            (For a discussion the findings of this research project and citations to the three original articles the investigators published earlier this year, see caspian.land/37386-vpervye-proveden-kompleksnyj-analiz-radiacionnoj-i-jekologicheskoj-bezopasnosti-obi-i-irtysha.html.)

            Both the numerically small peoples of the Russian North and ethnic Russian communities there are certain to be reassured by the finding that conditions have improved with regard to water and fish taken from these rivers, but they and others are likely to be alarmed by the suggestion that permafrost melting may create new dangers.

            Russian scholars have devoted much attention to the fact that the melting of the permafrost is releasing ever more bacteria and viruses into the atmosphere (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-ice-will-melt-and-we-will-all-die.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/04/melting-of-permafrost-may-release-not.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/12/melting-of-permafrost-in-russian-north.html).

            But they have been chary about talking about the much more explosive possibility that permafrost melting will lead to the stirring up of more radioactive materials into the water supply and the fish people along Siberian rivers eat. That makes this latest research especially important as a political as well as a social and economic development.

A New and Unexpected Emigration – Russians Moving to Belarus for Comfort and Security

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Increasing repression in Russia, declining economic opportunities there, and now Ukrainian drone attacks are leading ever more Russians to leave their own country and move to Belarus “in a search for comfort and security,” according to Irina Kravtsova.

            There are no available statistics on how large this flow has become, the Novaya Gazeta Europe journalist says; but it is clear from talk on social networks that it is no longer simply a curiosity. She spoke with four Russians who have already made this move (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/07/10/ia-tut-snova-stal-spat-golyshom).

            The first moved from St. Petersburg to Minsk in the summer of 2023. There are no language problems for him in Belarus, Dmitry says; and politics so far hasn’t become an issue. “As long as I’m not touched,” he continues, “every day I am becoming only more happy that I’ve moved.”

            The second, Kseniya, a native Muscovite moved in early 2025, moved not only to be with a Minsk air traffic controller but because she was happier to be in a place where income inequality was almost nonexistent at least in comparison with the Russian Federation now.

            The third relocator with whom Kravtsova spoke is a 28-year-old from Voronezh who moved to Brest in May of this year. He says that he began to think about leaving Russai when mobilization began in 2022; but as things got worse, he decided it was “incomprehensible” why he didn’t move to Belarus.

            Igor said that life in Belarus is far more pleasant than in his homeland and that he actively encourages other Russians to move. They won’t regret it, he suggests, however many temporary difficulties they may encourage. Life in the two countries is quite similar but life in Belarus is better.

            And the fourth, 38-year-old Elena, come from Minsk but after graduating from the Belarusian State University moved to Russia where she worked in advertising and in the public relations departments of various state institutions. She moved back because of increasing repression and the rising cost of living.

            So far, she has not found a job in Minsk; but she is optimistic and glad she has chosen to return to her original homeland. Life is better in many ways; and the fact that one has to avoid talking about politics is not a problem for Russians: they’ve already learned that lesson well. 

Declining Water Levels in Caspian ‘Irreversible’ and Littoral States Must Adapt, Azerbaijani Official Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – The decline of the water level of the Caspian Sea, now falling at between 20 and 30 centimeters (eight to twelve inches) has become “irreversible,” Aliaga Azizov, deputy head of the State Supervision Service for the Use and Protection of Azerbaijan, says.

            Consequently, it is long past time to stop debating whether this is so and to focus instead on adapting to the situation now and preparing for it to become worse in the future, Baku’s senior water specialist says (casp-geo.ru/obmelenie-kaspijskogo-morya-stalo-neobratimym-protsessom-schitayut-v-baku/).

            He observes that “the shallowing of the Caspian Sea has a serious impact on various areas: ports, shipping, fishing, coastal tourism and oil and gas infrastructure. This poses additional challenges to countries that depend on sea resources,” and taken together those will require residents and businesses to adapt to new conditions.”

            Azizov’s words are important instance not only because they put Azerbaijan at odds with Russian specialists who remain more optimistic about the future but also because they come from someone on the southern shores of the Caspian where water levels over the last decades have fallen less rapidly than in the north.

            But more important still is his call for adapting to this new reality rather than continuing to deny it. If Azizov’s position reflects the thinking of the Azerbaijan government – and it is difficult to think that it does not – then Baku will be taking the lead in dredging operations and reconstruction of ports.

            That will be an expensive choice, but it is likely to be the only one that will allow Azerbaijan and her littoral neighbors to continue to use the Caspian as a source of food, petroleum products and transit, something that will have an impact on China, the EU, and the West generally which want to continue to send oil and other cargo across the Caspian. 

Karelian Activists Seek to Make Dual-Language Ballots Automatic For Themselves and Others

Paul Goble     

            Staunton, July 7 – Karelian activists are seeking to make dual-language ballots automatic in areas where ethnic minorities life rather than leaving question of whether to have such ballots printed up to local officials who often refuse to prepare such ballots even when requested to do so.

            The Russian constitution specifies that non-Russians have the right to ballots and other election forms in their native languages; but that provision of the basic law increasing is ignored by officials. Now activists in Karelia are trying to change that (mariuver.eu/2026/07/07/aktivisty-trebujut-bjulletenei-na-nacionalnyh-jazykah/).

            They are calling on Karels and Weps to continue to bombard election officials with demands that ballots be printed in their languages and to force the government to live up to its constitution not only there but elsewhere, demands that may seem a small point but are an indication of the kind of action that may have some chance of success.

            After all, calling on Moscow to live according to its own laws and constitution was one of the strongest tactics of the Moscow Helsinki Group in the last decades of Soviet power not because that organization got its way but because it gained support for the idea of a law-based state, something the Karelian activists clearly hope can happen again. 

Duma Approves Measure Taking Regulation of Migrant Workers Away from Labor Ministry and Giving It to Interior Ministry

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 8 – The Duma has now completed passage of a bill that takes the regulation of migrant workers away from the ministry of labor and gives it to the interior ministry, a step that seems set both to further centralize control in the hands of the police and to limit the crazy quilt of regulations which now vary from region to region.

            The measure makes two important changes that justify that conclusion. It gives the interior ministry rather than the labor ministry the power to define the list of professions migrants may fill; and it specifies that Moscow can now give migrant workers with permission in one place to exercise that right in others (nazaccent.ru/content/45671-professii-dlya-migrantov-teper-budet-vybirat-mvd-rossii/).

            If the measure is signed into law and there is every reason to believe it will be as it was pushed by the ruling United Russia Party, that will expand the role of Moscow and the police in regulating immigrant labor and thus allow the center to rewrite regulations in regions that the central government judges to be at odds with its interests. 

Per Capita, Russians in Far East Fall Victim to Politically Motivated Criminal Cases Far More Often than Those in Other Federal Districts, ‘Memorial’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – The Memorial human rights organization reports that 2.5 per every 100,000 residents of the Russian Far East fell victim to politically motivated criminal cases during the first half of this year, the highest rate per capita of any federal district in the Russian Federation.

            Memorial researchers say that the reason for this is that increases in charges against Jehovah’s Witnesses. In the Far Eastern FD, almost one in four of such political charges involved religious groups whereas in other federal districts, the share was only seven percent (semnasem.org/news/2026/07/08/dalnij-vostok-vnov-stal-liderom-po-chislu-politicheski-motivirovannyh-ugolovnyh-del-na-dushu-naseleniya).

            They note that this is not the first time that the Far Eastern FD has led the Russian Federation in terms of such charges. The same thing was true throughout 2025 and thus continues a trend in which Russian officials far from Moscow are increasingly likely to bring such charges confident that they won’t be held to account by outside coverage. 

            Because this trend is greatest in the Far East and because it involves a religious group rather than an overtly political one, this aspect of repression in Putin’s Russia receives far less attention than it deserves given how few journalists or diplomats visit the region or even track what is going on there on a regular basis.

Moscow Payments to Women who Have a Child Don’t Compensate for Income They Lose by Doing So, New HSE Study Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – A Russian woman who gives birth to a child loses on average 14 percent of her income compared to her coevals who do not give birth, and such losses are not compensated fully by government payments intended to reverse the decline in fertility rates there, according to a new Higher School of Economics study.

            This “maternity tax” as Russians now refer to it, the HSE study says, grows in size because women with children often shift to part time work or are unable to go on business trips or get training their childless counterparts do and as a result aren’t promoted (province.ru/society/4501069-shtraf-za-materinstvo-pochemu-jenshchinam-v-rossii-nevygodno-rojat/ ).

            Another consequence of this “tax” is that the gender gap in pay is increasing as the government pushes more women to have children without providing them with full compensation for the costs of doing so. This year, for example, according to HSE, that gap increased for the first time since 2013.

Tallinn has Given Russian Church in Estonia Six Months to Appoint a New Metropolitan and Sever All Ties with Moscow

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 7 – The Estonian interior ministry has sent a letter to all religious associations in that Baltic country that they have until December 28 to bring their groups into compliance with a law that prohibits such organizations from being subordinate to religious groups in a foreign country or face the prospect of dissolution.

            In five of the six cases, the letter is pro forma as they are already in compliance; but it raises the stakes regarding the future of the Estonian Orthodox Christian Church as the EOC of the Moscow Patriarchate has renamed itself (news.err.ee/1610071837/estonia-gives-orthodox-church-6-months-to-choose-between-god-and-the-kremlin).

            The EOCC faces two challenges in bringing itself into compliance with Estonian law: It must dismiss those on its governing board whose Estonian residence permits were not extended in the last 10 years and removing all references to the Moscow Patriarchate in the basic documents governing the operation of the Estonian church.

            The first will be difficult given that the EOCC’s metropolitan who was required to leave Estonia two years ago after losing his residence permit still serves on the governing board of the church. But the second will be even more difficult because the denomination insists that its governing document makes the ROC MP that makes it the supervisor of the Estonian Orthodox.

            Priit Rohtmets, a Tartu professor church history, says that while the EOCC will likely seek to reduce the role of the Moscow Patriarchate in governing its life, it is uncertain whether it will be able to eliminate all references to the ROC MP in its basic documents. That sets the stage for a crisis in relations between Tallinn and Moscow later this year. 

            That is especially unlikely, he says, because the ROC MP is almost certainly going to be willing “to let the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church. Even if, from the perspective of the church here, such a move would be justified and well-founded, Moscow likely still has an interest in preserving the existing church structure and its influence over the church in Estonia.”

Russian Draftees to Fill Ranks of Fire Fighters Depleted by Low Salaries and Putin’s War in Ukraine

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 7 – Every year, Russia faces an enormous number of forest fires and needs thousands of firefighters to prevent them from spreading. That challenge has been made more difficult because of the fire fighters’ low salaries and the bonuses given to those who serve in Putin’s war in Ukraine.

            Now, in another revival of a Soviet-era practice, the Russian government is seeking Duma approval for a law that will allow the authorities to have thousands of soldiers to be dispatched to fight major fires (vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2026/07/07/1211664-soldat-srochnikov-otpravyat-v-pozharnie-chasti).

            As of now, the emergency services ministry has been able to use military personnel to fight fires only when the fires affect closed areas, although there is evidence that since last year, the authorities have exceeded their legal writ and been extending such programs to allow military personnel to fight fires elsewhere as well.

            The fact that the government is now seeking to legalize and thus extend this practice is yet another example of how Putin’s war in Ukraine has distorted the Russian economy and how the Kremlin, instead of recognizing that, is taking measures like this one to put that country on a war footing for the future in unexpected places. 

            The emergency services ministry has not yet said how many soldiers it will seek to use; but this program will certainly take enough to further complicate Moscow’s task of finding enough men to fill the rapidly depleted ranks of its military units now fighting in Putin’s war.

No Senior Russian Official Should be Allowed to Hold Any Office for More than Eight Years, Yaroshenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 7 – Aleksey Yaroshenko, a prominent analyst of Russian regional affairs, says that his country must adopt a law that would ban officials from remaining in senior positions for more than eight years, a step that would reduce corruption and give the state apparatus more flexibility.

            This call for a radical form of term limits, he argued, will not only do that but will encourage younger people who will then know that they will have greater chances at advancement rather than being held back by their seniors who remain in place for years (absatz.media/news/170812-v-rossii-predlozhili-zapretit-chinovnikam-zanimat-post-dolshe-vosmi-let).

            But the main advantage, Yaroshenko says, is that it will ensure “the rotation of personnel” and thus ensure that over time there will be “more different people with different opinions and approaches,” something that can only make the implementation of central policies more effective.

            There is virtually no chance that his proposal will even be considered seriously let alone adopted in Putin’s Russia: too many heads would have to roll and there would be enormous chaos in both the political system and the bureaucracy. But the fact that this idea has now been proposed indicates how angry some Russians are about officials remaining in office for so long.

            Indeed, Yaroshenko’s words are a way of talking about the departure of Putin and his entourage from power in a way that is less likely to lead to persecution or prosecution and represent yet another example of the slippage of public support for the Kremlin leader, however much the author of this idea might dissent from that possibility.

International Conference in Azerbaijan Calls on Moscow to Recognize ‘Genocide of Circassians and Other Peoples’ and Stop Forcing Non-Russians to Fight Its War in Ukraine

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 7 – An international conference in Shusha organized by Azerbaijan’s Center for Cultural and Ethnic Diversity called on the Russian Government to admit to “the genocide of Circassians and other peoples” and to stop forcing members of ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation to fight in Putin’s war in Ukraine.

            Representatives from ten countries took part in a meeting that reflects the continuing anger of many Azerbaijanis about Russia’s attacks on ethnic Azerbaijanis last year (echofm.online/news/v-azerbajdzhane-proveli-konferencziyu-uchastniki-kotoroj-potrebovali-ot-rossii-prekratit-prinuditelno-otpravlyat-predstavitelej-etnicheskih-menshinstv-na-front-v-ukraine).

            What makes this meeting and its declaration so important is that it is a clear example about how anger concerning Russia’s current crimes is leading those upset to focus on Russia’s crimes of more than a century ago, in this case, the genocide by killing and forced expulsion of the Circassians more than a century and a half ago. 

‘Only Fragments’ Remain of Soviet Network of Light Aviation which Linked Thousands of Russia’s Settlements Together, Officials Acknowledge

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 7 – In Soviet times, the government developed and maintained a system of light aviation including both planes and helicopters to link settlements and smaller cities with larger urban centers and each other. But privatization and sanctions have destroyed this system leaving “only fragments” in its place, officials say.

            The number of aircraft and pilots working in this segment of the transportation network has collapsed: there are now too few planes to service all these places and too few pilots to fly them even where the pilots exist, sometimes because of sanctions and sometimes because of lack of funding (nakanune.ru/articles/124819/).

            As a result of the loss of this integument, ever more villages and even smaller cities already have disappeared or are on the brink of doing so, something that is having the most deleterious consequences for Russia’s demography and even raising questions about national security because it is leaving so much of the country without any population.

            Moscow has announced programs to address this problem, but they have been underfunded or not carried out with any urgency. Planes don’t have motors, pilots aren’t being maintained, and runways are not being kept in shape for planes to land or take off. Reversing this will be difficult if not impossible at least in the short term.

            Some Russian officials believe that they may be able to end run these problems by using drone technology to pilot planes and then shifting resources away from training pilots for light planes into maintenance of airfields. But that will compromise general pilot training and may not be attractive to potential passengers who may not trust such technology.