42 Percent of All Russians and Even More Muscovites Didn’t Take Part in Census, Levada Center Survey Finds

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 21 – Rosstat claims that 99 percent of Russians took part in the delayed 2020 census either in person or online (strana2020.ru/mediaoffice/perepis-itogi-pervogo-etapa/). But a Levada Center poll finds that 42 percent of all Russians and 57 percent of residents of the capital say they did not take part (levada.ru/2021/12/21/uchastie-rossiyan-v-perepisi/).

            All these figures are somewhat problematic in that the percentages citied are based on the assumed size of the population, something that the census is intended to find out rather than simply confirm. But the reported levels of non-participation are unprecedentedly higher than in the 2010 and 2002 enumerations.

            According to the Levada Center poll, 46 percent of all Russians took part in the census face to face with census takers; but 42 percent said they had not taken part in the recent census. Among the reasons they gave for non-participation were that census takers didn’t approach them (49 percent) and the feeling that there was no reason for them to do so (21 percent).

            Only two percent indicated that they were afraid of being infected with the coronavirus, a cause many commentators had earlier suspected would drive down participation.

            The situation in the Russian capital was especially bad: 57 percent of Muscovites said no census takers approached them and they did not take part. Residents of smaller cities were slightly more likely to have been approached and taken part while residents of villages were also not contacted in record numbers.

            Clearly, the census was poorly organized; and the results are thus extremely problematic. Officials are likely to invent answers for those who did not take part, something that will make data on sensitive issues like ethnicity and language use extremely problematic if not outright wrong and do so at levels far worse than in earlier Russian or Soviet censuses.

            Some observers have suggested that even these results will be “better than nothing.” But it is hard to see how that can be true if officials are going to have the opportunity to come up with answers for nearly half of the population, answers that almost certainly will be intended to please the Kremlin rather than reflect reality.