A Truce in Ukraine would Be Strategically Worse for Putin than a Withdrawal, Savvin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 17 – Putin, it is now almost universally assumed, wants a truce in Ukraine to buy time or even to transform his war there into a frozen conflict, Dimitry Savvin says; but Putin in fact has reasons to consider that any truce would be strategically worse for him because of the conditions it would create could threaten his power.

            Clearly a true would buy him time to restock his arsenal and prepare his nuclear one for a major war, the editor of the Riga-based conservative Russian website says; but such a choice might be “even worse than the immediate withdrawal of troops from Ukraine” because it would trigger a long and expensive arms race (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=6374EDD86CCD6).

            And because of the strain that would put on the Putin system, “Russia would be reduced to ruins without the need for any bombing.” Of course, it is possible that Putin and his team don’t care about that and that all they want is to hold on for a few more years, even if that has the most negative consequences for everyone else.

            Indeed, the Kremlin camarilla may have already come to thank conclusion; but if it has, Russians and the world need to recognize what Putin is going to be putting Russia through – rather than act as if a truce is somehow a step toward peace and stability. If Putin were thinking more rationally, even he would see that a withdrawal from Ukraine now would be far more in his interest and Russia's.