Paul Goble
Staunton, Nov. 22 – In what she describes as “an economic paradox,” Natalya Milchakova of Freedom Finance Global says that Russia may escape the recession which now threatens Europe because of sanctions, the withdrawal of Western firms from Russia, and the refusal of Western countries to purchase oil and gas from Moscow.
As a result of these Western policies, the Russian economist says, Russia has redirected its sales to China and India which are currently far more stable that Europe in economic terms (mk.ru/economics/2022/11/22/ekonomicheskiy-paradoks-zapadnye-sankcii-mogut-spasti-rossiyu-ot-recessii.html).
As a result of these developments, several years from now, China and India will be the main drivers of the world economy while Europe will “lose its economic and political influence.” Since Russia has had its links to a falling star ended and hitched them to rising ones, it will be better off and likely escape any European recession.
That is not to say that Russia doesn’t face difficulties, including the costs involved of changing its infrastructure and logistical links from west to east. As a result, Moscow will have to forget about economic growth through at least 2024. But it won’t see the decline it might otherwise suffer.
Moreover, inflation in Russia next year is likely to be higher than Moscow is now predicting, likely in the range of six to eight percent; but the ruble will stabilize because Russians won’t have to purchase so many dollars and euros, likely at a range of 60 to 63 rubles to both the dollar and the euro over the next 24 months.
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