Staunton, Jan.13 – Even if Russia loses its war in Ukraine, Anna Caprile says, a weakened Russia will remain a threat to the world and itself, as kind of failed state or at least “a failed empire” that will remain a threat to the world and itself as it seeks to overcome or compensate for the situation it will find itself in.
The European Parliament political analyst says in this situation, no one should expect Russia to quickly become a democracy interested in returning to the international order as a cooperative partner. That is at best a distant prospect (dw.com/ru/tri-scenaria-budusego-rossii-issledovanie-evroparlamenta/a-64372442).
The first scenario is a continuation of what the Kremlin is doing, a move to an ever more authoritarian, hyper-centralized and semi- or even full-scale totalitarian state. Because that approach if it isn’t modified is likely to lead to even more mistaken decisions with “fatal consequences,” it could usher in either the second or third scenario, Caprile says.
The second is the collapse of the Putin regime, a threat so dire in the minds of many that they will try to find a replacement leader who can ensure that it doesn’t go too far. If they can, then the system may continue for a time much as it has; if they can’t, then there is a risk that Russia will move from the second to the third scenario, the disintegration of the country.
“A country with 85 subjects and more than 150 ethnic group has a great potential for fragmentation,” the EU analyst says. But if this happens, and she considers it “unlikely but extremely dangerous,” it won’t “happen via orderly negotiations … but rather be a case of dissolution in a power vacuum” with all the threats that would entail.