Thursday, January 19, 2023

Violent Crime Increasing in Russia by a Lot Near Ukrainian Border but by Far Less Elsewhere, Analysis Shows

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 15 – Overall figures about violent crime in the Russian Federation combine large increases near the border with Ukraine where military operations are taking place and where violence may spring from that rather than from typical causes and small increases elsewhere where giant percentage increases reflect the tiny bases from which they are calculated.

            That is the conclusion Kseniy Babikhina of the Tochno portal offers on the basis of a study of the most recent data on violent crime in that country (

            Violent crime really is on the rise in border regions, she says; but elsewhere the percentage increases being reported reflect extremely low bases. In the Nenets AD, for example, where the increase this year compared to last was reported as 200 percent, the number of crimes involving weapons rose from one to three.

            Moreover, Babikhina points out, many crimes that are listed as violent in fact are only ones where one of the parties involved was armed but may or may not have used the weapons. Consequently, there is an additional reason for overreporting at least in some places. And there is an additional problem: crimes are not always reported on the basis of where they took place.

            Thus, the city of Moscow where many people are tried for crimes they committed elsewhere saw a surge in violent crime, but many of the crimes included in that category were in fact committed somewhere else. Violent crime in the Russian capital is up slightly – about three percent -- but not the 540 percent officials have been reporting.

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