Saturday, July 22, 2023

Kazakhstan Residents Increasingly Fear Russia will Invade Their Country, ‘Demoscope’ Polls Find

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 20 – The share of Kazakhstan residents who believe that Russia will invade their country almost doubled between December 2022 and May 2023, according to the results of polls conducted by the country’s Demoscope monitoring, with 15.3 percent now thinking that Russia will invade Kazakhstan compared to 8 percent six months earlier.

            This change is striking because the feelings of Kazakhstan residents toward the war in Ukraine and its likely outcome have remained virtually unchanged over this period, the sociological service says (

            Asked about their attitudes toward Russia, 51.5 percent of Kazakhstan residents said their attitudes had not changed, but 32.6 percent, almost a third, said that in the course of the war, their attitudes toward their northern neighbor had deteriorated. Not surprisingly younger people were far more negative about Russia than older ones.

            According to the latest poll, 21.1 percent of Kazakhstan residents support Ukraine in the war, while 12.8 percent back Russia. But what is most characteristic of Kazakhstan attitudes is that 59.8 percent of the population say they are neutral. Ten percent expect Russia will win, while 8.9 percent expect Ukraine to do so. Most – 54 percent – expect a compromise outcome.

            One in five Kazakhstan residents backs the arrest and trial of Vladimir Putin for war crimes, almost as large a share – 29.7 percent – who oppose such an outcome. 

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