Biggest Problem with Rosstat Economic Data Not Falsification but Failure to Collect Representative Samples in Key Sectors, Rybakova Suggests

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 6 – That the Russian government’s statistical arm engages in outright lies is no surprise, but the biggest problem with Rosstat data is not so much falsification as the failure to collect representative samples in key sectors, a pattern that distorts its data sets on prices and on employment among others, Tatyana Rybakova says.

            The Russian economic commentator points out that “Rosstat gathers data from across Russia, but it only receives information from relatively large companies. Smaller firms often lack the capacity to complete the agency’s extensive questionnaires; and they face no real penalties for failing to do so” (theins.ru/ekonomika/281573).

            That skews inflation and employment figures because smaller firms typically are forced to raise prices more than larger ones whose size allows them greater ability to negotiate and fix prices and because smaller firms suffering from the impact of inflation are more likely to let workers go than are larger ones where such action would be more politically sensitive.

            Thus Rosstat reports less inflation and less unemployment that ordinary Russians experience, again not because it is falsifying the data but because it isn’t making a good faith effort to collect all the data needed to make accurate reporting about these sensitive figures possible.