Kazakhstan and Russia Suffering Most Immediately from Declining Water Level of Caspian Sea

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 1 – Kazakhstan and Russia are suffering the most from declining water levels on the Caspian Sea because, while the surface of the sea has falling relative to sea level by almost exactly the same amount everywhere, the depth of the sea is far lower in the ports and sea lane in the waters off those two countries than elsewhere.

            All of Kazakhstan’s ports and sea lanes require constant and expensive dredging to keep them open. In the case of the Russian Federation, the major port at Astrakhan and sea lanes leading from it are now at risk as well, although Moscow can and does have a better option in the case of Makhachkala (casp-geo.ru/v-kazahstane-iz-za-snizheniya-urovnya-vody-v-severnom-kaspii-poyavilis-novye-ostrova/).

            There, the decline in the depth of the sea is less; and that may be one of the reasons why Moscow relocated the main base of its Caspian Flotilla there from Astrkhan, although that highlights the problems the Russian navy will have if it seeks to move ships from the Caspian via the Volga-Don canal to waters off Ukraine.

            Russia also faces the problems arising from the fact that Dagestan, the most Muslim of all the federal subjects of the Russian Federation, is also one of the most restive, raising questions about security in the sea lanes and ports there and in transit across that region northward into Russia proper.

            The three other Caspian littoral states – Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan – also face problems with siltification, but these threats are longer term, and the three countries have more time to address the situation. There, the shallowing of the Caspian in the north makes them relatively more important transportation routes.