Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 4 – Moscow has
played up the ways ISIS is a threat to the Russian Federation, but there is at
least one way in which the Islamic State may be helping the Kremlin: The
departure of militants from the North Caucasus to fight for ISIS in Syria and
Iraq is giving Russian forces a chance to crack down hard on those remaining.
At the same time, however, this
latest crackdown shows how much support the Islamist militants have within the
elites in these republics and how few alternatives Moscow has to employing the stick
now that the economic crisis has deprived it of the carrots that it had been
distributing to local elites to keep them in line.
Consequently, the Russian government
may gain some short term advantage in the North Caucasus, especially given that
the departure of militants to fight for ISIS had already led to a decline in
combat there. But this is unlikely to last given the anger of the population
about Moscow’s use of force and the probable return of ISIS militants to the region
in the future.
Akhmet Yarlykapov, a researcher at
MGIMO’s Center for the Problems of the Caucasus and Regional Security, says that
some two to three thousand militants from that region have gone abroad to fight
for ISIS, weakening the underground in the North Caucasus (kavkazoved.info/news/2015/08/04/centr-menjaet-pravila-igry-na-severnom-kavkaze.html).
Their exit has
allowed Moscow to “change ‘the rules of the game’ in the North Caucasus,” Ayk
Khalatyan writes on the Kavkazoved.info portal, opening the way for a more
widespread and intense crackdown on the militants and their allies in regional
governments at a time when the economic crisis might have sparked a growth in
their number and activity.
To the extent that this is so, his
argument lends support to the conclusion of a recent journalistic investigation
that Russia’s FSB has been assisting some of the militants to go abroad, not
only so they can fight US-backed forces but so they won’t be in the field
against Moscow. See windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/07/fsb-helps-islamists-go-to-syria-only.html).
Moscow’s first move in this latest
wave of repression came on July 29 when FSB operatives used force to seize one
Daghestani official and caused a second to flee and then took the first under
arrest out of the republic and region.
Khalatyan says they are likely to be changed with murder and support of
illegal armed formations.
That action was followed by several
other arrests and searches in Daghestan a few days later, the journalist
says. As in the first case, these were
conducted by the FSB without apparent reference to the republic authorities, a
possible indication of distrust between the Moscow agency and the republic
government.
And also as in the first case, those
arrested put up a fight – they had large supplies of weapons and ammunition as
well as armed friends and associates who immediately tried to come to their aid
– and are expected to be charged with backing the underground against the
Russian authorities.
Given these Daghestani events,
relatively little attention has been given to Russian attacks on militants and
officials supporting them on August 2 in Ingushetia near the Chechen border. “In
general,” Khalatyan says, “such sudden and harsh actions of the federals toward
local elites reflects the sharp decline in danger from the illegal armed
formations.”
Some of that decline represents the departure
of militants to fight in Syria and Iraq, but it also means that the Caucasus Emirate
felt it had no choice but to swear allegiance to ISIS – and ISIS may have its
own calculation about when it will be most opportune to launch attacks inside the
borders of the Russian Federation.
Another driver of Moscow’s shift to the
use of force against officials are the crisis-driven cutbacks in the money it
can supply officials in that region. If the center no longer has the funds to
buy their loyalty, it will have to use force in order to try to intimidate
them, a policy Russia has employed many times before.
In some cases, the officials in the
North Caucasus will be intimidated by such actions. But in others, they and
their supporters in the population will simply be outraged – and even more
willing to support the radicals. In that event, Moscow may gain a temporary
advantage from its policies only to suffer a longer term loss.
No comments:
Post a Comment